Preview
PajimonMann, let me tell you something about this one. SC Freiburg are cooking at home like a proper braai on a Saturday afternoon, and FC Schalke 04 are wandering in looking like they forgot their meat at the shop.
Freiburg have won 9 of their last 10 games across all venues, scoring 3.3 goals per game and conceding just 0.8. At their own ground over 20 matches, the record is 15 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses, with 2.65 goals scored per game. Their last five matches tell the same story: 4 wins, 1 draw, 16 goals scored, 5 conceded. That 5–0 hammering of Borussia Mönchengladbach on 12 September, and the 4–1 over Werder Bremen on 30 August, show they are not just winning – they are putting teams to bed. The 4–2 friendly win over FC Luzern on 3 October keeps the momentum rolling, and their current run is a win, scoring 4 and conceding 2.
Now look at Schalke. Two wins, two draws, one loss in their last five. Four goals scored, four conceded. In their last 10 games they have 4 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses, scoring 1.4 per game. Away from home over 20 matches, they sit at 10 wins, 5 draws, 5 losses, scoring 1.6 per game. In their last five, they failed to score in three of them, and two of those were 0–0 draws – one against Bayern München on 5 September and one against SV Elversberg on 20 September. Yes, they beat Union Berlin 3–1 away on 11 September, and they got that 1–0 over Austria Lustenau in a friendly on 3 October, but the overall picture is a team that is struggling to find a rhythm, especially on the road.
The head-to-head here is entirely historical – the last meeting was back in April 2023, and all five listed meetings stretch back 3 to 6 years. In those five, Freiburg won every single one, and at their own ground the scores were 4–0, 4–0, 4–0. I will not call that a trend or an edge because it is dated, but it does paint a picture of how this fixture has played out when Freiburg are at home. The real story is in the current form: Freiburg are scoring at over three goals a game and conceding under one, while Schalke are scoring under one and a half and conceding over one.
The best counter-argument I can find is that Schalke have kept clean sheets in three of their last five games, and that 3–1 win at Union Berlin shows they can score when it matters. Also, the head-to-head is so old that it tells us nothing about how these two teams actually play against each other today. Freiburg's 2–2 draw at Eintracht Frankfurt on 19 September shows they are not untouchable, and the fact that they conceded in three of their last five means Schalke do have a route into the game.
Key Points:
- SC Freiburg: 9W 1D 0L in last 10, 3.3 goals scored per game, 0.8 conceded per game
- SC Freiburg at home (20 games): 15W 2D 3L, 2.65 goals scored per game
- FC Schalke 04: 2W 2D 1L in last 5, 0.8 goals scored per game, failed to score in 3 of 5
- FC Schalke 04 away (20 games): 10W 5D 5L, 1.6 goals scored per game
- Head-to-head is 3 to 6 years old; all 5 meetings won by Freiburg, three of them 4–0 at Freiburg's ground
My verdict: SC Freiburg home win at 1.71. The difference in form is too big to ignore, and Freiburg at home are a different animal from Schalke on the road. This is the one I would have my beer for.