SC Freiburg vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Bundesliga battle between Freiburg and Mainz. The lads from Freiburg are sitting comfortably in mid-table while Mainz are propping up the bottom end, and frankly, the numbers tell a proper story here.

Freiburg have been decent enough lately, grabbing 4 wins and 4 draws from their last 10 games. They've had some tasty results too - beating St Pauli 2-1 at home, smashing Nice 3-1 away in Europe, and even holding Union Berlin to a 0-0 draw. Yeah, they got spanked 6-2 by Bayern, but let's be honest, who hasn't this season? The key thing is their home form - they've won 2 out of their last 3 at home, scoring 2 goals per game on their own patch. That's proper decent.

Now Mainz... blimey, where do I start? They're having a right nightmare. Just 6 points from 11 games puts them second from bottom. Their away form is absolutely shocking - 0% wins in their last 4 away trips, and get this, they're only scoring 0.25 goals per game away from home! That's not a typo, that's one goal every four matches on average. They managed just 1 shot on target per game away from home recently. One! My gran could do better than that.

The head-to-head shows lots of draws historically, but that's ancient history when you look at current form. Mainz can't buy a goal on the road, while Freiburg are banging them in at home. The stats don't lie here - Freiburg are averaging 2 goals at home, Mainz are averaging virtually nothing away.

Looking at the betting odds, 1.95 for a home win looks proper value to me. You've got a team scoring freely at home against one that can't hit a barn door away. Sometimes the simple bet is the best bet, and this screams home win all day long.