SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction

SC Paderborn 07 host VfB Stuttgart at home on 10 October, and the numbers tell a story of two teams heading in very different directions. Stuttgart arrive in red-hot form, having won their last two games and scored eight goals while conceding none. Paderborn, meanwhile, have won their last two as well, but the context of their recent home record paints a more cautious picture.

The most telling evidence points to Stuttgart. Over their last 10 games across all venues, they've scored 2.4 goals per game and won 6 of 10, while Paderborn have managed just 1.3 goals per game and 4 wins from 10. Stuttgart's away record over 20 games shows them scoring 2.7 per game, and their last two competitive results before the friendlies were losses to Dortmund and Hoffenheim, but the form since has been emphatic. Paderborn's most recent home game was a 0–1 defeat to Freiburg, and they failed to score in three of their last five matches. That's a worrying pattern for a team about to face a side that's been scoring at a clip.

The counter-argument is Paderborn's home record. Over 20 home games spanning 12 months, they've won 11, drawn 5 and lost 4, scoring 2.0 per game. That's a solid base. They also won 3–1 at home against Hoffenheim just two weeks ago, and their last two games in any venue have been wins. Stuttgart's away record, though, is less dominant: 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses from 20 away games. The head-to-head is entirely historical — the last meeting was in January 2023 in the DFB Pokal, and before that in 2015 — so it offers no real guide to how this fixture will play out now. With no meetings in the last 12 months, we have to lean on current form and venue records.

The goal markets add another layer. Stuttgart's last 5 games saw over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5, and their away record shows 17 of 20 games going over 2.5. Paderborn's home record is 13 of 20 over. But Paderborn's last 5 games had under 2.5 in 3 of 5, and their last 10 had under 2.5 in 6 of 10. The BTTS picture is mixed: Paderborn's home record shows both teams scoring in 16 of 20, but their last 5 had at least one team failing to score in 4 of 5. Stuttgart's away record shows BTTS yes in 11 of 20.

Key Points:

• Stuttgart scored 2.4 per game in their last 10; Paderborn managed 1.3

• Paderborn failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches

• Paderborn's home record: 11W 5D 4L over 20 games, scoring 2.0 per game

• Stuttgart's away record: 8W 4D 8L over 20 games, scoring 2.7 per game

• The head-to-head is entirely historical, with no meetings in the last 12 months

The football points to Stuttgart as the stronger side, but the available prices could not be used for a recommendation at my honest assessment of the probabilities. No Bet.