Scunthorpe vs Altrincham Prediction

Alright, settle down with your pint, because we've got a proper National League scrap to dissect. Scunthorpe hosting Altrincham on Saturday afternoon, and on paper, this looks like a home banker. The Iron are sitting pretty in 6th place with 64 points, while Altrincham are languishing down in 15th with 43 points. But hold your horses, because the form book tells a very different story.

Scunthorpe have been leaking goals like a rusty bucket lately. Six defeats in their last ten matches, including a proper spanking at home to Boston United (3-6) and a 3-0 hiding from York. At home, it's been even worse – they've lost four of their last six at their own gaff, shipping 2.67 goals per game. That's not promotion form, that's relegation form. The only recent home win was a narrow 1-0 against Southend, but sandwiched between that were hammerings from Carlisle (3-1) and that six-goal thriller against Boston where the defense went completely missing.

Now flip the coin to Altrincham. These lads have found their shooting boots recently – five wins from their last ten, including a cracking 3-1 victory over promotion-chasing Boreham Wood and a solid 2-0 away win at Brackley. Sure, they took a 5-1 pasting from Tamworth recently, but they've bounced back with two wins on the spin against Truro (2-0) and Brackley (2-0). The problem? Their away form is patchy – just one win in their last four on the road, conceding 2.25 per game away from home.

The head-to-head makes interesting reading too. Altrincham won the reverse fixture 4-2 back in November, and while Scunthorpe have the better overall record at home against them, that was then and this is now.

The bookies have Scunthorpe at 1.57, which is shorter than my patience on a Monday morning. Given they've lost six of their last ten and can't keep clean sheets at home, that's taking the mickey. Altrincham at 4.75 is tempting given their recent resurgence, but their away record suggests that's not a stone-cold certainty either.

So where's the value? Both these sides have been involved in goal-fests recently. Scunthorpe's home games are averaging 4.17 goals per game (1.5 for, 2.67 against), while Altrincham's away trips are seeing 3.5 goals per game (1.25 for, 2.25 against). With goal expectancies suggesting nearly four goals in this match, and both teams showing they can score but can't defend, the Both Teams To Score market looks the smart play.

Key Points:

• Scunthorpe have lost 6 of their last 10 matches, including 4 of their last 6 at home

• The Iron are conceding 2.67 goals per game at home recently

• Altrincham have won 5 of their last 10, including victories over Boreham Wood and Wealdstone

• Altrincham won the reverse fixture 4-2 in November

• Both teams have high BTTS rates: Scunthorpe 70%, Altrincham 60% in recent games

• Goal expectancies suggest nearly 4 goals expected in this match

Summary:

Scunthorpe's price is too short given their shocking recent form, but Altrincham away is risky business. Instead, follow the goals. Both Teams To Score at 1.70 is the value call here – neither defense can be trusted, and both attacks have enough about them to find the net.