Sevilla vs Osasuna Prediction

Right, so we've got Sevilla at home against Osasuna, and if you want to know who's got the edge here, the numbers don't really leave much room for debate.

Sevilla's home record over their last 20 games at this ground is 9 wins, 3 draws, 8 losses — 1.5 points per game. They've scored 1.15 a game and conceded 1.3, with 4 clean sheets in that stretch. Now look at Osasuna's away record over 20 games: 5 wins, 4 draws, 11 losses. That's 0.95 points per game, and they've conceded 1.9 a game with just 1 clean sheet in 20 trips. The gap between those two sets of numbers is the story here.

The head-to-head at this venue backs it up. The only recent meeting at Sevilla's ground — back on 8 November 2025 — ended 1–0 to the hosts. The most recent meeting overall, on 26 April this year at Osasuna's end, went 2–1 to the hosts, but that's a different ground and a different dynamic.

Now, the honest counter-argument: both teams are in a bit of a rut. Sevilla's last five is 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses — they've conceded 13 goals in that stretch and lost 4–1 to Real Madrid just eight days ago. Osasuna's last five is the same: 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses, with 12 conceded. So on raw recent form, they're pretty much level. And Osasuna did pick up a 2–0 win over Racing Santander on 18 October, which shows they can find a gear when it matters.

But here's the thing — Sevilla haven't failed to score in their last 10 games, while Osasuna have gone blank in 4 of their last 10. And at this ground, Sevilla's defensive record (1.3 conceded per game) is a world away from what Osasuna are dealing with on the road (1.9 per game). The hosts also kept it to a single goal in the last meeting here, which tells you the visitors struggle to break down this side at home.

The market has Sevilla at 2.02 for a win, which prices them at about 49.50%. I'd put their chance closer to 55% when you factor in the home record, Osasuna's poor away record, and the fact that the hosts have kept it to one goal in the last meeting here. The price is doing the work for you.

Key Points:

• Sevilla's home record (9W 3D 8L in 20 games) is a clear step above Osasuna's away record (5W 4D 11L in 20 games)

• Osasuna have conceded 1.9 per game away and managed just 1 clean sheet in 20 trips

• Sevilla haven't failed to score in their last 10 games; Osasuna have gone blank 4 times

• Both teams are in similar recent form (1W 1D 3L in last 5), but the venue records tell a different story

• The last meeting at this ground was a 1–0 Sevilla win on 8 November 2025

Verdict: Sevilla home win at 2.02.