Preview
Value VinnyShamrock Rovers vs Bohemians kicks off on 12 October, and the numbers at this ground are doing the talking before the first whistle.
Shamrock Rovers have won 15 of their 20 home games, drawing 4 and losing just once. They average 2.05 goals per game at home and concede only 0.9. Their last two home matches have been wins — 3–1 over Drogheda United on 8 October and 3–2 against Waterford on 18 September — and the head-to-head at this specific ground is as clean as it gets: the recent meeting here finished 2–1 in Shamrock's favour, and the older meeting at this venue also went 2–1 to Shamrock. That's two for two at this ground, no draws, no defeats.
Now, I'll give Bohemians their due. They're in genuine form — 3 wins and 2 draws from their last five, no defeats. The 2–1 win at Dundalk on 2 October showed they can get results on the road, and they've scored 2.2 goals per game across their latest 10 matches. Their away record of 10 wins from 20 is respectable, and the head-to-head at Bohemians' ground has been closer, with both sides taking one of the two recent meetings there. The 3–2 win at Galway United on 11 September showed they can score on the road.
But here's where the value lives. The market has Shamrock Rovers at 2.15, which implies a 46.51% probability. Look at the home record — 15 wins from 20 — and the venue-specific head-to-head, and that number feels low. The home scoring output of 2.05 per game sits comfortably above Bohemians' away scoring of 1.7 per game, and Bohemians' away defence concedes 1.25 per game. That's a target for a side that's been scoring in threes at home. The strength of the home record, combined with the clean sweep at this venue, points to a higher true probability than the bookmakers have priced in.
The counter is real: Bohemians have been in the box, and their recent away win at Dundalk came with a red card in the 89th minute. But one red-card-aided result doesn't rewrite a 15-win home record, and the 0–0 draw at Bohemians' ground on 26 September — a friendly — doesn't tell you much about competitive away form.
Key Points:
- Shamrock Rovers: 15W 4D 1L in 20 home games, 2.05 goals scored per game
- Won both meetings at this ground (2–1 each), recent and older
- Bohemians: 3W 2D 0L in last 5, but 10W 4D 6L in 20 away games
- Market prices Shamrock win at 2.15 (46.51% implied) — the home record and venue H2H point to a higher true probability
- Bohemians' away defence concedes 1.25 per game, giving Shamrock's attack a clear target
The numbers don't lie, but the bookies' pricing does. Shamrock Rovers home win at 2.15.