Preview
PajimonAlright, I'm here with my boerewors on the coals and a cold one sweating on the table, and I'm looking at this one with a proper grin. Shandong Luneng are at home against Hangzhou Greentown on 17 October, and the numbers are singing a pretty clear tune.
Shandong Luneng at home over their last 20 games have won 12, drawn 5 and lost 3. That's 2.05 points per game, and they're putting up 2.3 goals a game while only leaking 1.35. Now flip that around and look at Hangzhou Greentown on the road - 20 away games, 4 wins, 7 draws, 9 losses. 0.95 points per game, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.95. That gap between those two sets of numbers is what I'm betting on, and it's not close.
The head-to-head at this specific ground is a bit thin - no meetings in the last 12 months at Shandong's place. But the older record from here shows Shandong winning both times, 4-2 and 3-0. The recent meetings were both at Hangzhou's ground, where they won 4-1 and drew 2-2. So the venue history leans Shandong's way, though I'll be upfront - it's mostly historical and I'm leaning on the home and away records far more.
Now I'll give the other side their fair shot, because I respect a proper fight. Shandong's last five games have been a bit of a mess. They've drawn their last two - 1-1 at Chongqing Tongliang Long and 1-1 at home to Sichuan Jiuniu - and they lost 0-3 to Shanghai SIPG at home and 0-2 at Qingdao Youth Island. That's 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses, and they've only scored 5 goals in that stretch. They're not exactly flying. And Hangzhou, while their away record is poor, have scored 14 goals in their last 5 games at 2.8 per game, and they beat Wuhan Three Towns 4-1 just four weeks ago. They're not a team that just sits there and takes a punch.
But here's the thing, and I'll say it again because it's the whole story - Hangzhou's away record is the real tale. 9 losses in 20 away games. They conceded 39 goals on the road. And Shandong at home are keeping it tight at 1.35 conceded per game. The matchup table doesn't lie - when you put Shandong's home numbers next to Hangzhou's away numbers, Shandong are the better side in every meaningful comparison.
Key Points:
- Shandong Luneng's home record: 12W 5D 3L in 20 games, 2.3 goals scored per game
- Hangzhou Greentown's away record: 4W 7D 9L in 20 games, 1.95 goals conceded per game
- No recent head-to-head at this venue; older meetings show Shandong winning both times
- Shandong's recent form is mixed (1W 2D 2L) but the home record speaks louder
- Hangzhou score well (2.8 per game in last 5) but their away defensive record is poor
My verdict: I'm going with the Shandong Luneng home win. The home and away records are too clear to ignore, and while Shandong's last few games haven't been pretty, the numbers at this ground say they're the stronger side.