Shandong Luneng vs Shenyang Urban Prediction

Alright mate, the new Super League season is upon us and we've got a proper clash to kick things off! Shandong Luneng are hosting the newly-promoted Shenyang Urban, and if the form book is anything to go by, the home side should be tucking into three points with their morning tea.

Let's talk about Shandong first, because blimey, they've been on one heck of a run. Ten games unbeaten to finish last season, and the goals were flowing like a Saturday night at the pub. We're talking a 6-0 demolition of Beijing Guoan, a 5-1 thumping away at Wuhan Three Towns, and a 3-1 win against SHANGHAI SIPG. That's 30 goals in their last 10 games - averaging three a match! At home, they've been even more dominant, winning 80% of their last five and netting three goals a game while keeping things relatively tight at the back (just one goal conceded per game).

Now, Shenyang Urban deserve respect for earning their promotion. They finished strong with six wins in their last ten, including a 5-0 battering of Dongguan United and a solid 3-0 away win at Shanghai Jiading. Their defence was the foundation - five clean sheets in those ten games and only 0.70 goals conceded per match. But here's the rub, mate: that was in League One. This is the big leagues now, and they haven't faced an attack like Shandong's yet. Their away record shows 40% wins and 1.60 goals scored per game, which is decent, but the step up in quality is massive.

There's no head-to-head history between these two, so we're going off recent form and class. Shandong are battle-hardened against top-tier opposition and come into this opener with 105 days rest - plenty of time to shake off any rust but not enough to lose that scoring momentum. Shenyang have had 119 days to prepare, but preparation only gets you so far when you're facing a side that put six past Beijing Guoan.

Key Points:

• Shandong Luneng are unbeaten in 10 games (6 wins, 4 draws) and scored 30 goals in that run

• Shandong's home record shows an 80% win rate with 3.00 goals scored per game

• Shenyang Urban were playing in League One last season (promoted) with solid but untested defensive stats

• Shandong beat Beijing Guoan 6-0, Wuhan Three Towns 5-1, and SHANGHAI SIPG 3-1 in recent home/away fixtures

• Shenyang kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10, but against lower division opposition

• No previous meetings between the two sides

The Verdict:

The bookies have Shandong at 1.59 to win this opener, which implies about a 63% chance. But looking at their 80% home win rate and the sheer firepower they've shown against quality sides like Beijing Guoan and SIPG, that looks like value to me. Shenyang's tight defence is about to get a proper examination at this level, and I fancy Shandong to pass it with flying colours. Back the home win - the maths says there's a nice edge here, and the football says these lads know where the net is!