Shanghai Shenhua vs Sichuan Jiuniu Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. Shanghai Shenhua, sitting pretty in 3rd place with 58 points, are hosting the struggling Sichuan Jiuniu who are languishing down in 12th with just 26 points. On paper, this looks like a proper mismatch, but football's not played on paper, is it?

Shanghai have been decent lately - 4 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses in their last 10. They've been banging them in at home too, averaging 2.5 goals per game on their own patch. They put six past Meizhou Kejia not too long ago, so they can definitely score. But here's the thing - they've also been letting them in, conceding in 8 of their last 10 matches. That 1.33 goals conceded per game at home isn't exactly fortress-like.

Now for Sichuan. Blimey, they've had a rough time of it. 3 wins and 7 losses in their last 10, with no draws whatsoever. Away from home they're even worse - scoring just 0.8 goals per game while shipping 1.8. But, and this is important, they have found the net in 70% of their recent matches. They even managed to beat Wuhan 2-1 and Beijing Guoan 2-1 recently, so they're not completely toothless.

The head-to-head makes for interesting reading. Only 4 meetings ever, and Shanghai have never actually beaten Sichuan at home. Last time these two met, Sichuan walked away with a 3-1 win. Granted, that was a while back, but it shows these lads can cause problems.

Looking at the stats, both teams have been scoring and conceding regularly. Shanghai's home games average nearly 4 goals (2.5 scored, 1.33 conceded), and Sichuan's away matches average 2.6 goals (0.8 scored, 1.8 conceded). The goal expectancy has Shanghai scoring 2.15 and Sichuan 1.07 - that points to goals from both sides.

The bookies have Shanghai at 1.17 to win, which is about as exciting as watching paint dry. No value there whatsoever. But both teams to score at 1.91? Now that's more like it. Given that both sides have been scoring in 70% of their recent matches, and both have leaky defences, this looks like the smart play.

Both teams to score gets my vote. It's better odds than the obvious home win, and the stats back it up nicely.