Sheffield Wednesday vs Hull City Prediction

Right then, let's talk about the Boxing Day fixture at Hillsborough. On paper, this looks about as one-sided as they come. Sheffield Wednesday are rock bottom, with just one win all season and a points tally that's somehow in negative numbers. Hull City, on the other hand, are sitting pretty in 4th and hunting a place in the automatics. It's a classic case of the strugglers versus the high-flyers.

Let's look at the cold, hard facts. The Owls haven't won a game in their last ten. Not one. They've picked up three draws and suffered seven defeats, shipping 20 goals in the process. At home, it's even grimmer: they've lost four of their last five in front of their own fans, including a 3-0 thumping by Derby and a 3-1 loss to Ipswich just last week. They're conceding an average of 2.4 goals per game at Hillsborough. That's not a defence, that's a welcome mat.

Now, over to Hull. The Tigers have won six of their last ten, including impressive away wins at Millwall (3-1) and Stoke City (2-1). They're scoring an average of two goals per game on their travels. Their only recent losses have come against the real top dogs like Middlesbrough and Ipswich. When they play teams in the bottom half, they generally get the job done – just ask Norwich, who they beat 2-0 away, or Wrexham, who they dispatched 2-0 at home.

The head-to-head doesn't offer Wednesday much comfort either. Hull have won five of the last nine meetings, including a 1-0 victory in their most recent clash back in April. At Hillsborough, Wednesday's record is one win, one draw, and two losses against the Tigers.

So, what's the bet? The bookies have Hull at evens (2.00). For a team in 4th playing the league's worst side, that's a price that catches my eye. I reckon Hull's chance of winning this is closer to 65% than the 50% the odds suggest. That's value in my book. Sure, it's football, and a scrappy draw is always possible, but Hull don't do draws – they've had none in their last ten. They come to win.

Key Points:

Sheffield Wednesday are winless in 10, with 7 losses.

They concede 2.4 goals per game on average at home.

Hull City have won 6 of their last 10 matches.

Hull score 2.0 goals per game on average away from home.

Hull have won 5 of the last 9 head-to-head meetings.

The last meeting ended in a 1-0 Hull victory.

The Simple Verdict:

All the momentum, form, and league position points one way. Hull City are a solid side who should have too much firepower for a Wednesday team that can't buy a win. At even money, backing the away win is the sensible play for your Boxing Day punt.