Sheffield Wednesday vs Sheffield Utd Prediction

Well, well, well - what have we got here then? It's the Sheffield derby, but not as you know it! Usually these games are packed with passion and pride, but this time round it's more like two drunkards fighting over the last drop at closing time. Both sides are having an absolute shocker of a season.

Let's have a proper gander at the league table, shall we? Wednesday are propping up the entire Championship with minus four points - yes, you read that right, NEGATIVE points! That takes some doing, doesn't it? United aren't much better, sitting just above them with a measly 10 points. This is basically the basement battle to end all basement battles.

Wednesday's form has been absolutely dreadful. One win in their last 10 games, and that was way back in September against Portsmouth. Their home record is even more worrying - zero wins in their last 5 at home, scoring a pathetic 0.6 goals per game while shipping 2.0. They got absolutely hammered 5-0 by Coventry at home not too long ago, which tells you everything you need to know about their defensive capabilities.

United aren't exactly setting the world alight either, but they do look slightly less terrible. They've managed 3 wins in their last 10, including a decent 3-1 victory at Blackburn. Their away form shows they can actually score on the road (1.4 goals per game away), even if they still leak goals like a sieve.

Now here's where it gets interesting - the head-to-head between these two has been incredibly tight recently. The last 5 meetings have seen a grand total of just 2 goals! We're talking 0-1, 0-1, 0-0, 0-0, 0-0. That's some proper cagey derby stuff right there. Both teams seem to cancel each other out completely.

Looking at the stats, Wednesday are averaging just 0.9 goals per game overall, but that drops to a miserable 0.6 at home. United are slightly better with 1.0 per game, and they actually improve to 1.4 on their travels. But both teams are conceding plenty - Wednesday let in 1.7 per game, United 1.4.

The bookies have United as favorites at 1.95, which makes sense given they're not quite as rubbish as Wednesday. The draw is 3.40 and Wednesday are 3.80 outsiders, which tells you everything about their prospects.

For me, the value lies in the goals market. Under 2.5 goals is priced at 1.80, and given the historical pattern of these encounters plus both teams' struggles in attack, that looks appealing. Both teams to Score - No is 1.91, which also makes sense given Wednesday's home scoring record is abysmal.

This has all the makings of a nervy, low-scoring affair. Both teams are desperate for points but lack the quality to break each other down. In derby matches like this, especially when both sides are struggling, it's often fear that wins out over ambition.

Key Points:

• Wednesday are rock bottom with minus four points - absolutely shocking

• United aren't much better, sitting second from bottom

• Wednesday have zero home wins this season

• Last 5 meetings between these sides have produced just 2 goals total

• Both teams struggle to score - Wednesday especially at home (0.6 goals per game)

• United have slightly better away form (40% win rate away from home)

Given the historical trend of low-scoring encounters between these two and both teams' woeful attacking records, I'm backing this to be another tight, cagey affair with few goals.