Shrewsbury vs Gillingham Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. On paper, you'd think Gillingham would have this sorted - they're sitting 7th in the table with 27 points, while Shrewsbury are down in 22nd with just 16. But football's not played on paper, is it?

Take a gander at the recent form and it's a completely different story. Shrewsbury have picked up 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in their last 10, averaging 1.40 points per game. Gillingham? Just 1 win, 4 draws and 5 losses in the same period, managing only 0.70 points per game. The form table tells a tale that'll make you scratch your head.

The key here is home vs away. Shrewsbury have been proper decent on their own patch lately - 75% win rate in their last 4 home games and only letting in 0.5 goals per game. They kept clean sheets against Newport (1-0), Crawley (1-0), and Cambridge (2-0). That's some solid defending, mate.

Gillingham away from home? Not so clever. 20% win rate in their last 5 away games, conceding 1.4 goals per game. They've been drawing for fun recently - 1-1 with Barnet, 2-2 with Crawley, 1-1 with Newport in the cup. Their only win in 10 games was a narrow 1-0 at struggling Bristol Rovers.

Head-to-head, these two love a draw - 6 stalemates in 9 meetings. But given Shrewsbury's home form and Gillingham's away struggles, I'm fancying the home side to nick this one.

The odds have Shrewsbury at 2.40 for the home win, which looks decent value when you consider they've won 3 of their last 4 at home. Gillingham are 2.80, but can you really back a side that's won just 1 of their last 10?

Both teams to score is priced at 1.83 either way, but with Shrewsbury keeping it tight at home (that 0.5 goals conceded per game is tasty), I'm leaning towards a low-scoring home win.