Sichuan Jiuniu vs Chengdu Better City Prediction
Sichuan vs Chengdu: Goals Galore on the Cards?
Preview
Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. It's a classic tale of two sides at opposite ends of the table - Chengdu Better City sitting pretty in 3rd with 59 points, while Sichuan Jiuniu are languishing down in 12th with just 26 points. That's a whopping 33-point gap, mate.
Now, you might think this is a straightforward away win, and the bookies certainly do with Chengdu at 1.42. But hold your horses, because there's a bit more to this story. Chengdu's been a bit dodgy on their travels lately - not a single win in their last five away games, though they have drawn four of them. They're conceding 1.6 goals per game away from home, which isn't exactly fortress-like.
Sichuan, for all their struggles this season, have shown some bite at home. They've bagged 1.5 goals per game on their own patch and even managed to beat Beijing Guoan 2-1 recently. Their home record in the last four reads 2 wins, 2 losses - so they're not complete pushovers.
Here's where it gets interesting though. These two teams have history, and it's been pretty tasty. Five of their six meetings have gone over 2.5 goals, and both teams have found the net in four of those encounters. The last meeting was an absolute hammering - Chengdu won 5-0, but that was back in June.
Looking at the recent form, both sides are seeing plenty of action at both ends. Sichuan's last 10 games have seen both teams score 60% of the time, and it's exactly the same story for Chengdu. The goal expectancies are suggesting around 1.5 goals each, which points to an open game.
The stats show Sichuan average 10.7 shots per game with 3.8 on target, while Chengdu are slightly better with 12.7 shots and 4.0 on target. Both teams are getting their chances, and neither defence has been particularly solid recently.
Given Chengdu's away form (lots of draws, few wins) and Sichuan's ability to score at home, coupled with that head-to-head history of goals, I'm leaning towards both teams getting on the scoresheet here. The odds of 1.75 for both teams to score look decent value to me.