Preview
Mr CertaintyThe most striking fact heading into this 2. Liga fixture is that Rapid Wien II have lost their last five matches, scoring just four goals and conceding fifteen along the way. Their most recent defeat came on 10 October at home to Wacker Innsbruck (1–2), and before that they were beaten 4–1 away to Austria Vienna (Am), 2–0 at home to First Vienna, 5–2 at Sturm Graz II, and 2–0 at home to Floridsdorfer AC. Five consecutive losses with zero points is a run that tells you everything about a team's current state.
SKN ST. Polten, by contrast, hold the edge in the home-versus-away defensive comparisons. At home over 20 games, they have recorded 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses, conceding just 0.9 goals per game and keeping 9 clean sheets. Rapid Wien II's away record over 20 games is 9 wins, 1 draw and 10 losses, with 1.7 goals conceded per game and only 5 clean sheets. The defensive gap between the two sides in this specific home-versus-away context is clear.
The head-to-head reinforces the picture. In the only meeting within the last 12 months, SKN ST. Polten won 4–0 at their own ground on 6 March. Looking further back, SKN ST. Polten have won 7 of the 8 recorded meetings between these two sides, and at this venue specifically they have won both the recent encounter and the older ones (4–0, 3–1, 1–0). Rapid Wien II have managed just one victory in the entire history of this fixture.
The counter-argument is that SKN ST. Polten are not in perfect form either. They lost 1–3 to First Vienna on 9 October, just seven days before this kickoff, and their last 10 matches across all venues show 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses. The 0–3 home defeat to Red Bull Salzburg in the Cup on 6 September also reminds us that this is not a team immune to being beaten at home. However, those two losses sit against a backdrop of a 2–1 home win over Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz and a 3–1 away win over FC Liefering, and the Salzburg game was a Cup fixture.
The market prices SKN ST. Polten at 1.52, implying roughly a 66% chance. My own reading of the form, the head-to-head and the home-versus-away records puts the home side's chance a touch higher than that, and the evidence is strong enough to back it.
Key Points:
- Rapid Wien II have lost their last 5 matches, scoring 4 and conceding 15
- SKN ST. Polten have won 7 of 8 head-to-head meetings, including a 4–0 win at this venue in March
- SKN ST. Polten's home record: 9W 4D 7L, 0.9 conceded per game, 9 clean sheets in 20
- Rapid Wien II's away record: 9W 1D 10L, 1.7 conceded per game, 5 clean sheets in 20
- SKN ST. Polten's most recent loss was 1–3 to First Vienna on 9 October
Verdict: The evidence points firmly to a SKN ST. Polten home win.