Preview
PajimonLook, I'll be honest with you – this one's got me reaching for the braai before kickoff on 16 October. SKN ST. Polten are at home, and Rapid Wien II have come in on a five-game losing run that would make any coach reach for the nearest cold one. Four goals scored, 15 conceded in those last five – that's three a game leaking out the back. And they're travelling to Polten's ground, where the hosts have won 7 of 8 meetings against this very side, including a 4–0 thumping just seven months ago at this same venue.
Polten's home numbers back it up. Over 20 home games, they've kept a clean sheet in 9 of them and conceded just 0.9 per game. Rapid Wien II's away record over 20 games tells a different story – 1.7 conceded per game, and only 5 clean sheets in 20. The head-to-head at this ground is 3–0 in Polten's favour: 4–0, 3–1, 1–0. Not a single draw, not a single Rapid win. And in the full head-to-head across both venues, 5 of 8 meetings saw at least one team fail to score, with Polten keeping a clean sheet in 5 of those 8.
Now, the counter-argument, and I'll give it fair play. Polten lost their last game 1–3 to First Vienna, and their last 10 across all venues is 3 wins, 1 draw, 6 losses. They're not flying. And Rapid Wien II's away record over 20 games does show 9 wins – they're not a team that can't win on the road. The head-to-head is also mostly historical, with 4 of the 5 meetings falling outside the last 12 months. So the 7–1 record is a long-term pattern, not a current-season trend. And in Rapid's last 5, they did score in 3 of those games, so they're not completely toothless up front.
But here's what sticks for me: Rapid Wien II's recent form is genuinely poor. Five straight losses, and in 2 of those 5 they failed to score entirely. Polten's home record shows they keep games tight – 14 of their last 20 home games saw at least one team fail to score. The head-to-head at this venue has been the same story: 3 clean wins, with Polten conceding zero in 2 of those 3. When a side is leaking 3 goals a game and the opposition's home defence is averaging under 1 conceded, the odds of both teams finding the net start to look a bit slim.
Key Points:
- Rapid Wien II have lost their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 15
- SKN ST. Polten have won 7 of 8 head-to-head meetings, including 4–0 at this venue 7 months ago
- Polten's home record: 9 clean sheets in 20 games, 0.9 conceded per game
- Rapid Wien II's away record: 1.7 conceded per game, only 5 clean sheets in 20
- Polten lost their most recent match 1–3, so this isn't a one-sided form picture
So here's where I land: I'm going with both teams not to score.