Solihull Moors vs Eastleigh Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this National League clash. Solihull Moors, sitting pretty in 10th, welcome an Eastleigh side who are down in 19th and looking a bit wobbly at the back. On paper, it's a home banker, but the numbers tell a more interesting story for us punters.

First up, the Moors. They've been having a right old go at home, haven't they? Averaging a whopping 2.67 goals a game at their place from their last six. We're talking proper thrashings: a 7-1 demolition of Tamworth and a 4-1 pasting of Sutton United. They love putting the lesser lights to the sword. But, and it's a big but, when they've come up against the big boys like York and Rochdale recently, they've come up short, losing 0-2 and 0-1. The good news for them? Eastleigh are no York or Rochdale.

Now, Eastleigh. Blimey, they've been leakier than a sieve. No clean sheets in their last ten outings, conceding over two goals a game on average. They've been on the wrong end of some proper hidings: a 4-1 loss at Southend and a 1-4 home defeat to Aldershot Town. Even losing 2-1 to a struggling Braintree side is a bad look. The one positive? They usually find the net themselves, scoring in 9 of those last 10 games. They average 1.6 goals on their travels, so they're not completely toothless.

When these two have met, it's been a tight affair historically – two wins apiece and five draws from nine games. The last one finished 1-1 back in October. So Eastleigh know how to get a result against the Moors, even if they are struggling.

So, what's the bet? The bookies have the Moors at 1.79 to win, which is probably about right. But for my money, the value is all in the goals markets. The 'Over 2.5 Goals' price is 1.72. Let's do the maths. The Moors score loads at home. Eastleigh concede loads everywhere. Eastleigh usually score too. Put it together and you've got a recipe for goals. The goal expectancy model buried in the data points to over 3.8 goals. In their last ten games, six of Moors' and seven of Eastleigh's have had over 2.5 goals. It's a pattern, plain as day.

Key Points:

Solihull Moors average 2.67 goals per game at home.

Eastleigh have conceded 2+ goals per game on average and have kept zero clean sheets in ten.

Both teams have scored in 90% of Eastleigh's last ten matches.

The head-to-head is even, but recent form heavily favours a high-scoring Moors win.

• The fair probability for 'Over 2.5' is around 56%, but the recent form suggests the real chance is much higher.

In summary, while the Moors should have too much at home, the smart play is backing the net to bulge at least three times. Eastleigh's defence is there for the taking, and they're likely to chip in with one themselves. At 1.72, 'Over 2.5 Goals' is the value shout.