Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got Sorrento hosting Casertana on 18 October in Serie C Girone C, and this one's got me scratching my head a bit.
On one hand, Sorrento's last 10 games are absolutely cracking — 7 wins, 3 losses, no draws, 2.1 points per game. They're scoring 1.5 a game and conceding just 1. At home over 20 games, they've picked up 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses, scoring 1.3 per game and keeping it to 1.15 conceded. That's a solid home record, no doubt about it.
But here's the rub: their last 5 has gone a bit sideways. Two wins, three losses, and they dropped the ball at Scafatese 2-3 just 7 days before kickoff. They also lost at home to Bari 1-2 on 19 September. So the form dip is real, even if the longer run looks great.
Now Casertana. They won their last game 3-1 against SS Monopoli on 10 October, which is a nice bounce. Their last 5 is 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses — not terrible, but not great either. Their away record over 20 games is 8 wins, 5 draws, 7 losses, scoring 1.2 per game and conceding 1.25. And that 20-game stretch spans 11 months, so some of those results are a bit dated.
And here's where it gets interesting for the home side. The head-to-head in the last 12 months is 2-0 to Casertana. They beat Sorrento 2-0 at their own ground on 30 March, and Sorrento lost 1-2 at home on 22 November. Over 10 meetings total, Casertana have won 6, drawn 3, and Sorrento have won just 1. That's a lot of history pointing the other way, and the older meetings — a 4-0 and a 5-2 at Casertana's ground — are historical record, not current form, but they do paint a picture.
The matchup table does give Sorrento a slight edge at home — 9 wins to 8, 1.55 points per game to 1.45, and they concede fewer (1.15 to 1.25). But it's not a huge gap, and Casertana's away record is respectable.
So what do we make of it? Sorrento's longer form and home numbers say they're in with a good chance. The head-to-head and the last 5 say they're vulnerable. The market has Casertana as slight favourites at 37.04%, with Sorrento at 35.34%. I think the home side's recent run and home numbers give them a genuine edge, and I'd rate their chance at around 37%, which edges past the market's view. The H2H is a concern, but it's only two recent games against 7 wins in 10, and the older meetings are historical.
Key Points:
- Sorrento's last 10: 7W 0D 3L, 2.1 ppg — the best form in this fixture
- Casertana won both H2H meetings in the last 12 months (2-0 at home, 1-2 at Sorrento)
- Sorrento's last 5: 2W 0D 3L, lost their most recent game at Scafatese
- Home vs away: Sorrento 9W 4D 7L (1.55 ppg) vs Casertana 8W 5D 7L (1.45 ppg)
- Market: Casertana 37.04%, Sorrento 35.34%, Draw 30.58%
My pick: Sorrento home win at 2.83. The last 10 form and home numbers are compelling, and I think the H2H, while concerning, is only two recent games against 7 wins in 10.
