Southampton vs Preston Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. Southampton are in a right old mess at the bottom of the table, sitting 20th with just 12 points from 12 games. Preston, meanwhile, are knocking about in 7th with a tidy 19 points. There's a proper gulf between these two in the standings.

Now, here's the thing that jumps out at me - Southampton's home form is absolutely shocking. They've drawn their last three at home without scoring a single goal: 0-0 with Swansea, 1-1 with Middlesbrough, and 0-0 with Portsmouth. They're averaging just 0.33 goals per home game recently. That's not just bad, that's relegation-bad stuff.

Preston aren't exactly world-beaters on their travels, mind you. They've only won one of their last four away games, though that was a decent 1-0 at Derby. They average exactly a goal per away game, which isn't setting the world alight either.

When these two met last season, Southampton ran out 3-0 winners, but that was a different time and a different form. The previous meeting was a 2-2 draw.

Looking at the recent results, Southampton are shipping goals but can't score them themselves. They've lost their last two 2-1 at Blackburn and 3-1 at Bristol City. Preston just beat Sheffield Utd 3-2 at home but lost 0-1 to Birmingham before that.

The stats paint a picture of a low-scoring affair. Southampton are averaging 1 goal scored and 1.5 conceded per game overall, but at home it's much worse. Preston are averaging 1.3 for and 1.3 against, but away from home they're tighter defensively.

Both teams seem to struggle in front of goal, and with Southampton's home scoring record being so pathetic, I'm leaning towards this one staying under 2.5 goals. The bookies have it at 2.00, which seems about right for a match between a team that can't score at home and another that's not exactly prolific on the road.