Preview
Right, let's get into this one. Spezia host Atalanta II at their ground on 1 November in Serie C Girone B, and the numbers here are telling a very clear story.
Spezia have been relentless over the last 10 games: 9 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses. That's 2.8 points per game, 1.9 scored and just 0.5 conceded. At home over 20 games, they've won 12, drawn 4 and lost 4, averaging 1.8 goals per game while keeping the opposition to 0.95. Their last five include a 2-1 Coppa Italia win over Livorno, a 2-0 demolition of Gubbio, and 1-0 away wins at Ravenna and Reggiana. Four wins and a draw, 7 goals scored, 2 conceded. Three clean sheets in five. The current run is a win, but the underlying stretch of results is what really catches the eye.
Now look at the visitors. Atalanta II have won just 2 of their last 5, losing 3. They've conceded 7 in those 5 games and kept just 1 clean sheet. On the road over 20 games, their record is 6 wins, 6 draws, 8 losses — 1.2 points per game, 1.15 scored, 1.35 conceded. Their last 10 across all venues: 5 wins, 5 losses, no draws. They've failed to score in 3 of those 10, and they've picked up two red cards in their last five, which doesn't help when you're already leaking goals.
There's no head-to-head history between these two, so we're working purely on current form and venue records, and the gap is stark. Spezia's home record is 12 wins from 20; Atalanta II's away record is 6 wins from 20. Spezia's recent form is 9 wins from 10; Atalanta II's is 5 wins from 10. The points-per-game difference in the relevant venue records is 2.0 to 1.2, and the goals-per-game gap in scoring is 1.8 to 1.15 while the conceded-per-game gap favours Spezia at 0.95 to 1.35.
The counter-argument? Atalanta II did pick up a 2-1 win at home against Vis Pesaro on 28 October, and their away record does include 6 wins. But those 6 wins come alongside 8 losses, and their recent away form — a 0-2 loss to Latina on 14 October and a 1-2 loss to Torres on 11 October — is grim. They've also conceded 14 goals in their last 10 games. Spezia, by contrast, have conceded just 5 in their last 10.
The market prices Spezia at 1.45, implying a 68.97% chance. My read on the football — a team averaging 2 points per game at home against a side averaging 1.2 away, with no head-to-head to muddy the picture — puts Spezia's win probability closer to 73%. That's a genuine edge, and the price looks generous relative to the probability the evidence supports.
Key Points:
- Spezia: 9W 1D 0L in last 10; 12W 4D 4L at home in 20 games
- Atalanta II: 2W 3L in last 5; 6W 6D 8L away in 20 games
- No head-to-head meetings on record between the two sides
- Spezia scored 7 and conceded 2 in last 5; Atalanta II scored 6 and conceded 7
- Market implies 68.97% for Spezia; the form and venue data support a higher probability
Verdict: I'm backing the Spezia home win at 1.45.
