ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd Prediction

There's something quietly satisfying about finding value in the corners of a fixture list, and this one has a little corner worth a look. ST Johnstone host Dundee Utd on 17 October in the Premiership, and while the market leans towards both teams finding the net, the numbers tell a different story to the little puppy in this fixture.

Dundee Utd's away record over the last 20 games is the most telling piece of evidence here. In those 20 trips, they failed to score in 8 of them, and in 11 of those 20 games at least one team kept a clean sheet. Their last five matches show the same pattern: four of five were BTTS no, with a 1–0 win over Hibernian and a 3–0 at ST Mirren among the four, and a 1–1 draw with Falkirk the only one where both sides scored. Over their last 10 games across all venues, 7 of 10 saw at least one side go scoreless. That's a team that, on the road, regularly shuts one end down, and their current run of two wins has been built on clean sheets.

ST Johnstone's home record supports the same reading. In 20 home games, 10 of them were BTTS no, and they've kept 8 clean sheets. Their last five matches included a 0–1 home loss to Celtic and a 1–1 home draw with Falkirk, and their home scoring average sits at 2 goals per game with 0.95 conceded. The head-to-head, while entirely historical (the most recent meeting was in April 2025, 18 months before kickoff), also leans this way: 19 of 31 meetings saw at least one team fail to score. I'll be upfront — that head-to-head is dated and I'm not treating it as current form, but it does paint a picture of a fixture that tends to go quiet.

The counter-argument is straightforward and I'll give it fair play. Dundee Utd's recent form is genuinely strong — three wins in their last five, including a 4–0 away win at Kilmarnock and a 3–0 at ST Mirren. ST Johnstone's home record is solid at 11 wins from 20, and their last five games include a 2–1 win over Hibernian and a 1–0 away win at Aberdeen. The market's implied probability for both teams to score is 61.73%, and there's a reasonable case that ST Johnstone's home attack (2 goals per game) meets Dundee Utd's recent scoring output (1.8 per game in their last five). If Dundee Utd keep scoring at that rate and ST Johnstone's defence slips, both boxes get ticked.

But the weight of the evidence — Dundee Utd's away record, their recent clean-sheet wins, ST Johnstone's home defensive record, and the historical head-to-head — all points to at least one team going quiet. The underdog here isn't a team, it's the scoreline itself, and I'm happy to back the little puppy in this one.

Key Points:

• Dundee Utd's last 20 away games: 11 were BTTS no, 8 saw them fail to score

• Dundee Utd's last 5 matches: 4 of 5 were BTTS no, including three clean-sheet wins

• ST Johnstone's 20 home games: 10 were BTTS no, with 8 clean sheets

• The head-to-head (historical, 31 meetings): 19 of 31 were BTTS no

• The market's implied probability for both teams to score is 61.73%, but the venue and recent records tell a different story

My pick: both teams not to score.