Preview
PajimonBoet, grab your beer and settle in, because this one's a proper goal-fest. St. Louis City host Los Angeles Galaxy on 11 October, and if the numbers don't lie — and they usually don't — you're in for a high-scoring affair.
St. Louis City have been absolutely on fire. Their last five matches have all finished with three or more goals: 3–0 at New York Red Bulls, 3–1 against Toronto FC at home, 3–0 at Colorado Rapids in the US Open Cup, 4–2 against Minnesota United, and 2–2 at Portland. That's five out of five over 2.5, with 15 goals scored and just 5 conceded. Stretch it out to their last 10 games and 9 of those 10 have gone over 2.5. At home over 20 games, 14 of those 20 have seen three or more goals. The man is scoring, boet — 3 goals per game in the last five.
Los Angeles Galaxy have been involved in plenty of goals too. Four of their last five matches went over 2.5 — 3–2 against Colorado at home, 3–2 at Minnesota, 1–1 against Seattle at home, 0–3 at Vancouver, and 2–1 against New England at home. Their away record over 20 games shows 14 of those 20 finishing with three or more goals, and they've conceded 1.8 goals per game on the road. That's a lot of holes in the bucket.
Now the head-to-head is where it gets proper entertaining. In 11 meetings between these two sides, 10 have finished with three or more goals. The most recent meeting on 23 July at Los Angeles Galaxy's ground ended 1–3 to St. Louis City. The one before that, on 11 February, was a 3–0 friendly win for LA, but that's a different kettle of fish. The older meetings at St. Louis City's ground — a 3–3 draw and a 2–1 win — also saw three or more goals, though those are from a couple of seasons back.
The counter-argument? Well, LA Galaxy have won their last two games, both 3–2, which shows they can be competitive and keep it close. The 1–1 draw with Seattle four weeks ago was a low-scoring affair, and St. Louis's 2–2 at Portland showed they're not always dominant. But when you look at the consistency of the over 2.5 record across both teams' recent form, their venue records, and the head-to-head, it's hard to ignore.
Key Points:
- St. Louis City have gone over 2.5 in all 5 of their last 5 matches and 9 of their last 10
- Los Angeles Galaxy have gone over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5 and 14 of their last 20 away games
- 10 of the 11 head-to-head meetings between these sides have finished with 3+ goals
- St. Louis City have scored 3 goals per game in their last 5; LA Galaxy have conceded 1.8 per game away
So here's the call: I'm going over 2.5 goals. The evidence is stacked, the form is there, and the head-to-head backs it up. You can't argue with 10 out of 11 meetings going over. Eish, what a match it's going to be. Pass the braai and pour another one — this is going to be a good one.