Preview
PajimonAye, so St. Louis City are cooking up a storm, and Vancouver Whitecaps are struggling to keep up. Five wins in a row for the home side — 19 goals scored, 5 conceded — and that's not just a nice run, that's a team that's eating everything in front of them.
At home, St. Louis City have a record of 11 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses over 20 games, scoring 2.25 per game. That's a solid base to build on, and it lines up perfectly with what we've seen in their last five: a 6-2 hammering of LA Galaxy, a 3-0 away win at New York Red Bulls, a 3-1 home win over Toronto FC, a 3-0 away win at Colorado Rapids in the US Open Cup, and a 4-2 home win against Minnesota United. Every single one of those went over 2.5 goals.
Now, the head-to-head here is a bit thin on current form. The only meeting within the last 12 months was five weeks ago, and St. Louis City went to Vancouver and won 3-1. The older meetings — going back two years — show Vancouver winning three of those, but those are historical and don't tell us much about what's happening right now. What matters is the form, and the form is all St. Louis City.
Vancouver Whitecaps, on the other hand, are not having a great time. Their last five: a 1-1 draw at LAFC (with a red card in the 6th minute, which is rough), a 3-1 loss to Chicago Fire, a 3-3 draw at home to DC United, a 3-0 win at Real Salt Lake, and a 1-2 loss to CF Montreal in the Canadian Championship. One win, two draws, two losses. Their away record over 20 games is 6 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses, with 1.55 goals per game. That's a side that struggles on the road, and it shows.
The matchup table makes it clear. St. Louis City at home: 1.95 points per game, 2.25 scored, 1.4 conceded. Vancouver Whitecaps away: 1.25 points per game, 1.55 scored, 1.35 conceded. St. Louis City are the better side on most of these measures, though Vancouver's away defence is slightly tighter at 1.35 conceded per game.
The counter-argument? Vancouver aren't a bad team. They scored 9 in their last five games, and they've kept clean sheets in 5 of their 20 away games. And historically, they've won more of these meetings. But history is history — the current form gap is too wide to ignore.
Key Points:
- St. Louis City have won their last 5 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 5
- Their home record over 20 games: 11W 6D 3L, 2.25 goals per game
- Vancouver Whitecaps: 1W 2D 2L in last 5; away record 6W 7D 7L
- Recent H2H: St. Louis City won 3-1 at Vancouver five weeks ago
- St. Louis City's last 5 games all went over 2.5 goals
Verdict: I'm going with the St. Louis City home win at 2.82. The form is too strong, the home record too solid, and the market is pricing them at 35.46% when I see them as the clear favourite.