Preview
Yoda Mc Yoda FaceFive wins, five wins, you say. And the force is strong, yes. St. Louis City have not lost in five matches, scored 19 goals and conceded just 5. The run stretches back to 13 September and includes victories at home and away — 6–2 over Los Angeles Galaxy on 11 October, 3–0 at New York Red Bulls on 30 September, 3–1 against Toronto FC on 20 September, 3–0 at Colorado Rapids on 17 September, and 4–2 over Minnesota United on 13 September. The young ones would call it a hot streak. I say: the form is undeniable, and it must be respected.
At home, the numbers tell a steady story. Over 20 home games spanning 12 months, St. Louis City have won 11, drawn 6 and lost 3, scoring 2.25 per game and conceding 1.4. In their last 10 matches across all grounds, the record is 7 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses, with 3 goals per game and 1.3 conceded. The market, however, has placed Vancouver Whitecaps as the favourites at 2.35, with St. Louis City at 2.82. A curious arrangement, yes. The wise one must look past the price and see the football.
The head-to-head at this venue is thin. There have been no recent meetings at St. Louis City's ground within the last 12 months. The one recent meeting, on 6 September at Vancouver's ground, ended 1–3 to St. Louis City. The older meetings — four in total, stretching back two years — are historical record and do not speak to current form. In those older games, Vancouver won three times, with one draw. The dates dilute any reading of the present, and I will not pretend they carry the weight of today's football.
Vancouver Whitecaps, on the other hand, arrive with a thinner story. One win, two draws and two losses in their last five. Nine goals scored, nine conceded. The 1–1 draw at Los Angeles FC on 11 October came with a red card in the sixth minute. The 3–1 loss to Chicago Fire on 7 October and the 1–2 loss to CF Montreal on 16 September show a side that struggles on the road. Their away record over 20 games is 6 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses, with 1.55 goals per game and 1.35 conceded. In their last 10, the record is 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses. The force, here, is not strong.
The counter-argument must be heard, yes. The market sees Vancouver as the stronger side. Their away defence has kept 5 clean sheets in 20 away games, and their xG against in the three games with data is 0.92 per game. The historical head-to-head favours Vancouver. And a 5-game winning run, while impressive, can meet a wall. The force, even strong, must be tested. But the wall, in this case, is thin. St. Louis City have not failed to score in any of their last five. Vancouver have not failed to score either, but they have conceded in four of five. At St. Louis City's ground, 15 of 20 home games have gone over 2.5 goals, suggesting the goals will come.
Key Points:
- St. Louis City: 5W 0D 0L in last 5, 19 scored, 5 conceded; 7W 3D 0L in last 10
- Vancouver Whitecaps: 1W 2D 2L in last 5, 9 scored, 9 conceded; 3W 3D 4L in last 10
- Home record (20 games): St. Louis City 11W 6D 3L; Vancouver away record: 6W 7D 7L
- Recent H2H: St. Louis City won 3–1 at Vancouver on 6 September; no recent meetings at St. Louis City's ground
- Market: Vancouver favourites at 2.35 (42.55% implied); St. Louis City at 2.82 (35.46% implied)
The form is on the side of St. Louis City, and the force is undeniable. I rate the chance of a St. Louis City win at roughly 48%, well above the market's 35.46% view. The bet: home win.