ST Mirren vs Dundee Prediction

Look, I'll be honest with you - this one's got me reaching for the braai before the kickoff. ST Mirren have lost their last five games, and they've been absolutely cooked. Five losses, two goals scored, 14 conceded. That's 0.4 goals a game going in and 2.8 coming out. Their last home game was a 0-3 loss to Dundee on 19 September, and before that they were beaten 1-2 by Celtic at the same ground. The run is five straight defeats, and the numbers don't lie.

Dundee, on the other hand, are cooking up a storm. Two wins, two draws and one loss in their last five, scoring 1.6 goals a game. They beat Falkirk 2-1 on the road on 10 October and drew 2-2 with Rangers at home on 17 October. In the head-to-head, Dundee have won two of the three recent meetings - 1-0 at their ground in May and 3-1 back in November. The only meeting at ST Mirren's ground in the last 12 months was a 0-0 draw on 31 January. So Dundee have the edge in this fixture, and they've shown it.

Now, the counter-argument, and I'll give ST Mirren their due: their home record over 20 games is 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses, with 1.4 points per game. That's not nothing, and it means they do have a history of getting results at home. Dundee's away record over 20 games is 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses at 1.15 points per game. So on the longer stretch, ST Mirren's home numbers look a touch better. But that 20-game record doesn't tell you about the last six weeks, where ST Mirren have been absolutely dismantled. Five straight losses with 14 goals conceded is not a team that's about to turn it around on 24 October.

The xG numbers back it up too. ST Mirren's xG for is 1.31 per game over six recent matches, but they've only actually scored 8 goals in those games - and in the last five, just 2. Dundee's xG against is 1.75 per game over seven matches, meaning they're facing decent chances but their defence has held up well, conceding just 8 goals in that stretch. Dundee's xG for is 1.26 per game, and they've scored 10 actual goals - they're converting at a decent rate.

Key Points:

• ST Mirren have lost 5 in a row, scoring 2 and conceding 14 across those matches

• Dundee are 2W 2D 1L in their last five, scoring 1.6 per game

• Dundee won 2 of 3 recent head-to-head meetings (1-0, 3-1); the only meeting at ST Mirren's ground was a 0-0 draw

• ST Mirren's 20-game home record (8W 4D 8L) looks respectable but current form is dire

• Both teams' last 5 games saw over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5 matches

My verdict: I'm going with the Dundee away win. The form gap is too big to ignore, and the head-to-head tells the same story. ST Mirren's home record over 20 games is respectable, but five straight losses with 14 goals conceded is not a team that's about to turn it around. Dundee are in solid form, they've beaten ST Mirren in two of the last three meetings, and the numbers say they're the stronger side. At 3.03, this is where I'm putting my money.