ST Mirren vs Kilmarnock Prediction

Right then, let's have a look at this Boxing Day weekend clash between St Mirren and Kilmarnock. On paper, it's a mid-table side at home against a team stuck in the bottom three, but the form book tells a much clearer story.

St Mirren are coming into this one with the wind in their sails. They've won three of their last four matches in all competitions, including a cracking 3-1 victory over Celtic in the League Cup and a solid 2-0 league win against Dundee United. Even their 3-3 draw away at Aberdeen shows they've got goals in them. At home, they've been decent, winning half of their last six. They're scoring at a rate of 1.7 goals per game over their last ten, and while they do concede a few, they're generally on the up.

Kilmarnock, on the other hand, are in a right old rut. No wins in their last ten games, losing eight of them. They've only scored six goals in that miserable run, conceding a whopping 22. Away from home, it's even grimmer: no wins, scoring less than a goal a game on average, and shipping 2.6. Their only recent bright spots were a couple of draws, including a plucky 1-1 at league leaders Hearts, but that's a rare highlight in a sea of defeats.

Now, the history books say Kilmarnock have had the upper hand in this fixture, winning five of the last eight meetings, including a 2-0 win back in October. But that was before St Mirren found this bit of form. Football's about what's happening now, and right now, Killie look like they've forgotten how to win.

The odds have St Mirren at 1.80 for the home win. That implies the bookies think they've got about a 56% chance. Given the gulf in recent results, I'd say that's a bit generous. St Mirren at home against a team that can't buy a win? I'd make them a stronger favourite than that.

Key Points:

• St Mirren have won 3 of their last 4 matches in all competitions.

• Kilmarnock are without a win in their last 10 games, losing 8 of them.

• Kilmarnock have scored just 6 goals in those 10 games, while conceding 22.

• St Mirren have a 50% home win rate this season; Kilmarnock have a 0% away win rate.

• The last meeting saw Kilmarnock win 2-0 in October, but current form suggests a different story.

All signs point to a home win. The odds of 1.80 offer solid value for a side in much better nick. I'm backing St Mirren to take all three points.