St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise Prediction

What do you mean no meat? Never heard of it! Let’s dive into this Jupiler Pro League clash. St. Truiden hosts Union St. Gilloise on May 2, 2026, and the data points strongly toward the visitors.

St. Truiden has shown improvement recently, picking up 4 wins, 1 draw, and suffering 5 losses in their last 10 outings. They average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, they score 1.50 goals and concede 1.50, with a 50% win rate over their last 4 home fixtures. Their shot accuracy sits at 35.5% at home, and they average 14.50 shots per match. However, their defensive consistency remains a concern, conceding 1.50 goals at home.

Union St. Gilloise, on the other hand, is absolutely on fire. They boast an impressive run of 8 wins and 2 draws in their last 10 matches, without a single loss. They average 1.60 goals scored and just 0.50 conceded per game, keeping a clean sheet in 50% of those fixtures. On the road, Union averages 1.75 goals scored and 0.50 conceded, with a 75% win rate in their last 4 away games. Their defensive solidity is backed by 1.75 saves per away game and 81.5% pass accuracy.

The head-to-head record is a massive red flag for St. Truiden. In their last 10 meetings, Union has won 7 times, with just 1 win for the hosts. In the last 5 H2H matches, Union won 4 and drew 1. Most recently, Union took a 1-0 win on April 4 and a 3-1 victory on March 22. St. Truiden’s home record against Union is 0 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses.

Looking at the markets, the away win is priced at 2.00. Given Union’s 80% win rate in their last 10 games, their rock-solid 0.50 away goals conceded average, and their historical dominance, this offers a solid edge. The goal expectancy models suggest Union will score around 1.62 goals, while St. Truiden averages 1.00. With Union’s defense conceding only half a goal per away game, an Away Win at 2.00 stands out as the most reliable play.

Key Points:

• Union St. Gilloise has not lost in their last 10 matches (8W, 2D).

• St. Truiden averages 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded at home.

• Head-to-head heavily favors Union: 7 wins in the last 10 meetings.

• Union’s away defense is elite, conceding just 0.50 goals per game.

• Goal expectancy favors an away victory with Union scoring ~1.62 goals.

Summary: Back Union St. Gilloise to win at 2.00.