Preview
Must see, you must, the gap between these two sides. Start, at their own ground, have won 11 of their last 20 home games, scoring 1.85 per match while conceding just 1.25. Ham-Kam, on the road, have won only 5 of their last 20 away games and concede 1.9 per outing. The numbers do not lie, I tell you.
Start arrive with fire in their belly. Four wins in their last five matches, and a current run of two victories in which they scored 7 and conceded just 2. The 5–1 thrashing of Raufoss on 6 October, the 2–1 over Brann at home on 2 October — these are the marks of a side in command. Their goals per game across the last five sit at 2.4, and they have failed to score in only one of those matches.
Ham-Kam, however, travel with a heavy heart. One win, one draw, three losses in their last five. They conceded 14 goals in that span — 2.8 per game. The 1–5 defeat to Molde at home on 13 September, the 0–4 to Rosenborg away on 5 September — these are wounds that do not heal quickly. Their current run is a loss, and the road has been unkind: 12 defeats in 20 away games.
The head-to-head, I must tell you, is thin. One meeting within the last 12 months, at Ham-Kam's ground on 26 April, which they won 2–1. The older meetings stretch back to 2021 and 2023, and they are historical record, not current form. So we must lean on what is here, now, in the present moment.
The counter-argument, must be heard, even if it is small. Ham-Kam did score in 4 of their last 5 matches, and there is no recent head-to-head at this venue. Start's home record, while strong, does include 6 losses in those 20 games, and the 0–3 defeat at Sandefjord on 20 September — with a red card in the 56th minute — reminds us that even the strong can falter. Ham-Kam's away record, while poor, does include 5 wins, and they are not without the ability to find the net.
But the weight of evidence, I say, favours the home side. Start's home scoring of 1.85 per game against Ham-Kam's away concession of 1.9 per game tells a story. Start's recent form of 4 wins in 5 against Ham-Kam's 1 win in 5 is a clear divide. The market prices Start's win at 1.99, implying a 50.25% chance. My reading of the form, the venue records, and the current runs places Start's probability of victory closer to 55%. A small edge, but an edge nonetheless.
Key Points:
- Start have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 7
- Ham-Kam have lost 3 of their last 5, conceding 14 goals (2.8 per game)
- Start's home record: 11W 3D 6L in 20 games, 1.85 scored per game
- Ham-Kam's away record: 5W 3D 12L in 20 games, 1.9 conceded per game
- Only 1 recent head-to-head meeting (Ham-Kam won 2–1 at their ground on 26 April 2026)
The force is with the home side. Start win.
Match time