Preview
Right, so we've got Start hosting Ham-Kam at their ground on 11 October, and if you've been following the numbers, this one's got a pretty clear shape to it.
Start at home have been proper solid. Over their last 20 home games, they've won 11, drawn 3 and lost 6, picking up 1.8 points per game and scoring 1.85 a match. That's a record that says "come to our place and you'd better bring something special." And their current form? Four wins from their last five, with a two-game winning run where they've scored 7 and conceded just 2. The 5-1 away win at Raufoss on 6 October and the 2-1 over Brann at home on 2 October show they're in the zone and scoring freely.
Now look at Ham-Kam on the road. Their last 20 away games read 5 wins, 3 draws and 12 losses. Twelve losses, folks. That's 0.9 points per game and 1.9 conceded per match. In their last five, they've managed one win, one draw and three losses, conceding 2.8 a game. The 0-4 at Rosenborg on 5 September and the 1-5 at home to Molde on 13 September paint a picture of a side that's leaking goals like a sieve.
The head-to-head here is thin on recent meetings. The only one within the last 12 months was back in April at Ham-Kam's ground, where they edged it 2-1. The older meetings go back to 2021 and 2023, but those are historical and don't really tell you what's happening now. So we're leaning heavily on current form and the home/away records, and those point firmly to Start.
The counter-argument? Well, Ham-Kam did beat Start in April, and they've got an away win in their last five — the 2-0 at Kjelsås in the cup on 16 September. And the matchup table shows both sides' games tend to go over 2.5, so it's not a tight, low-scoring affair to expect. But the weight of evidence — Start's home record, their scoring form, Ham-Kam's away struggles — all points the same way.
Key Points:
- Start have won 11 of their last 20 home games, scoring 1.85 per match
- Ham-Kam have lost 12 of their last 20 away games, conceding 1.9 per match
- Start are on a two-game winning run, scoring 7 and conceding 2
- Ham-Kam have won just 1 of their last 5, conceding 2.8 per game
- The only recent head-to-head meeting (April 2026) went to Ham-Kam 2-1 at their ground
My verdict: Start home win at 1.99. The numbers don't lie — Start at home against a Ham-Kam side that's struggling on the road is a strong call. I rate Start's chance of winning at around 57%, which sits comfortably above the market's 50.25% implied probability. There's value here, and I'm happy to back it.
Match time