Preview
Right, so we've got Start hosting Lillestrom in the Eliteserien on 1 November, and I'm telling you, this one's got a clear edge for the visitors if you look at the right numbers. Now I'm not one for a dry stats sheet over a braai, but this one's got meat on the bone.
Lillestrom have been cooking. Three wins, a draw and a loss in their last five, and they're on a two-game winning run where they've scored 5 and conceded 3. They beat Brann 3-2 at home on 25 October and then beat Sogndal 2-1 at home in the NM Cupen on 28 October. That's a team in rhythm, brothers. Now, sure, they got thumped 0-6 by Real Sociedad in the Europa League on 22 October, but that was a European competition match and it doesn't change what they're doing in domestic football.
Start, on the other hand, have been a bit of a mixed bag. They won 1-0 against Sandefjord at home on 25 October, which is their current run - just one game. But before that, they lost 2-4 to Ham-Kam at their own ground on 11 October and got absolutely hammered 1-6 by Molde away on 18 October. That's a team that's been leaking goals, and it shows in the numbers. Over their last five, Start have conceded 12 goals. That's 2.4 a game. Not pretty, and I'd rather be watching a game than worrying about my defence.
Now look at the head-to-head. The only meeting within the last 12 months was on 11 April 2026 at Lillestrom's ground, and Lillestrom won 3-1. The older meetings - going back to 2018 - are historical record, but they do show Lillestrom winning 3 of those 4. So the pattern is clear: when these two meet, Lillestrom tend to get the job done.
The venue records give Start a slight edge - 10 wins in 20 home games compared to Lillestrom's 9 wins in 20 away games. But here's the thing: Lillestrom's away defence is tighter. They concede 1.1 per game away and have kept 8 clean sheets in those 20 away games, while Start concede 1.45 per game at home and have only 5 clean sheets. Start's home scoring is good - 1.7 per game - but their defence at home has been a problem, and that 2-4 loss to Ham-Kam at home is a real warning sign.
The counter-argument is that Start do have a solid home record and they've won their last home game. Their xG numbers show they're creating chances - 2.1 per game in recent games with xG data. And the matchup table shows Start scoring more at home than Lillestrom score away. So it's not a foregone conclusion. But the weight of evidence - recent form, the H2H, the defensive numbers - all points to Lillestrom.
I rate Lillestrom's chance of winning at around 46%, which is above the market's 41.32% view at 2.42. That's a value I can back.
Key Points:
- Lillestrom are on a 2-game winning run (5 scored, 3 conceded) and beat Brann 3-2 on 25 October
- Start lost 2-4 at home to Ham-Kam on 11 October and 1-6 away to Molde on 18 October
- The only recent H2H meeting (11 April 2026) was a 3-1 Lillestrom win
- Lillestrom concede 1.1 per game away with 8 clean sheets in 20 away games; Start concede 1.45 per game at home
- Start's home record is 10W 3D 7L in 20 games, but their recent home form has been shaky
Verdict: I'm going with the away win for Lillestrom at 2.42.
