Preview
PajimonRight, so we've got Stockport County hosting Bromley at home on 17 October in League One, and let me tell you, this one's got a proper story to it.
Stockport County have been absolutely cooking. They've won their last three games on the bounce, scoring six and conceding just one. That's the kind of form that makes you sit back with your beer and nod your head. At home over their last 20 games, they've won 14 of them, scoring 2.3 per game and keeping it to 1.1 conceded. Their xG numbers back it up too — 1.76 per game for, 1.36 against. This is a side that's clicking at the right time, and that 3–1 win over Barnsley on 10 October was a statement.
Now look at Bromley. Lost their last three, scored one, conceded seven. That's not a team that's in any sort of rhythm. Away over 20 games, they've only won 7, and their xG against is sitting at 2.57 per game. That's a defence that's leaking like a bucket with a hole in it. Even their best away result in that stretch is a win, and they've drawn 6 and lost 7. The 0–4 loss to Crawley Town on 6 October and the 1–2 defeat at Mansfield on 10 October show just how fragile they are on the road.
The head-to-head is entirely historical — the last time these two met was back in 2022, and Stockport County won 3 of those 6 meetings. So I'm not going to lean on that as current form, but it does paint a picture of a side that has handled Bromley before. At Stockport County's ground in those older meetings, the hosts went 1W 2D 0L.
Now, the counter-argument. Bromley aren't dead. They've got 7 away wins in 20 games, and they did beat Huddersfield 2–1 at home on 19 September. They've also drawn 6 of their away games, which means they can grind out results on the road. And Stockport County did lose 3–4 to Leicester at home on 12 September, so they're not untouchable. The BTTS records are also fairly even — 12 of 20 at home for Stockport County, 13 of 20 away for Bromley — so both teams do find the net in most of their games.
But here's the thing — the form gap is massive. Stockport County are on a three-game winning run with a goal difference of plus 5 in those games. Bromley are on a three-game losing run with a goal difference of minus 6. That's not a close match.
Key Points:
- Stockport County have won their last 3, scoring 6 and conceding 1
- Bromley have lost their last 3, scoring 1 and conceding 7
- Stockport County's home record: 14W 2D 4L in 20 games, 2.3 scored per game
- Bromley's away record: 7W 6D 7L in 20 games, 1.7 conceded per game
- Both teams' 20-game records show BTTS yes in the majority of games (12/20 and 13/20)
So here's my take. The market has Stockport County at 1.26 for the win, which prices them at 79.37%. I rate them a bit lower than that given Bromley do have some away resilience, but the form gap is too big to ignore. The over/under and BTTS markets are where the value sits for me. Both teams' records show they score in most of their games — Stockport County have failed to score in just 2 of 20 home games, and Bromley have failed to score in 4 of 20 away games. That tells me both ends of the pitch will find the net.
My pick: both teams to score, at 1.91.
Now go get your braai sorted, grab a cold one, and enjoy the football. Boet, this one's got meat on it.
