Stockport County vs Wigan Prediction

Alright, gather round! We've got a proper League One clash on Saturday afternoon as Stockport County look to keep their promotion push rolling against a Wigan side that's been struggling to find their feet. Now, if you're looking at the table, this looks like a mismatch – but as we all know, football loves a laugh at our expense when we get too cocky!

Stockport are sitting pretty in fifth place with 53 points, right in the thick of the playoff hunt. Their home form has been absolutely solid – four wins and a draw in their last five at the office, scoring 1.6 a game and keeping things tighter than a drum with just 0.8 conceded. They've been beating decent sides too – took care of Plymouth 2-1 a few weeks back, and that lot have been picking up over two points a game recently. Even when they faced the league leaders Cardiff, they came away with a hard-earned 1-1 draw. The only blot on their copybook lately was a 1-0 defeat at Bradford, but we all have off days, don't we?

Now then, Wigan. Oh dear. Twenty-second in the table and staring down the barrel of a relegation scrap with just 31 points from 30 games. Their last ten matches make for grim reading – one win, two draws, seven defeats. They got absolutely battered 6-1 by Peterborough recently and shipped four to Arsenal in the Cup before that. Away from home it's even worse – they're conceding nearly three goals a game (2.67) and scoring less than one. When you're averaging 0.6 goals per game over ten matches, you're not giving your back four much of a chance, are you?

The head-to-head makes for interesting reading – Stockport have never actually beaten Wigan at home in the last five meetings, managing two draws and losing the others. But form is temporary, and right now Wigan are showing none of it. Stockport are creating chances for fun (13.3 shots per game) while Wigan are barely getting a look-in (7.6 shots).

The bookies have Stockport at 1.67 to win, which is short but fair. When you've got an 80% home win rate against a side losing two-thirds of their away days, the maths stacks up. Wigan's defence has more holes than a pub dartboard after closing time, and Stockport have the firepower to exploit it.

Key Points:

• Stockport have won 80% of their last five home games, scoring 1.6 goals per game while conceding just 0.8

• Wigan have lost nearly 67% of their last six away games, conceding 2.67 goals per trip on average

• The visitors have scored just six goals in their last ten matches (0.6 per game)

• Stockport recently beat playoff-chasing Plymouth 2-1 and drew 1-1 with league leaders Cardiff

• Wigan were thrashed 6-1 by Peterborough and 4-0 by Arsenal in recent outings

Summary:

It's hard to look past a home win here. Wigan are in absolute tatters, shipping goals for fun and barely able to hit a barn door at the other end. Stockport are solid, organised, and know how to grind out results against the league's better sides, never mind one that's struggling. At 1.67, you're not buying a yacht with the winnings, but it's a banker to build an acca around. Stockport to take the three points.