Preview
Right, so we've got Stranraer hosting Clyde on 31 October, and if you've been following the numbers, this one's got a story to tell.
Stranraer at home are the sort of side you want on your side of the pitch. Over their last 20 home games, they've won 9, drawn 5 and lost 6, scoring 1.8 a game and keeping it to 1.25 conceded. That's a solid record, and it's been backed up recently. In their last five, Stranraer have won three and drawn two without a defeat, scoring 14 goals along the way. They've won their last two — a 3–1 over Tayport in the FA Cup and a 2–0 at Spartans — and that's the sort of momentum you want heading into a league fixture.
Now look at Clyde on the road. Over 20 away games, they've won 3, drawn 6 and lost 11. That's 0.75 points a game, and they're conceding 2.25 a game on the road. Four weeks ago they got thumped 2–6 by Elgin City away, and their most recent trip was a 1–1 draw at Penicuik in the FA Cup. Three of their last five wins have come at home, and the away record just doesn't sit right.
The head-to-head at Stranraer's ground gives us one recent meeting — back in March, Stranraer won 3–1. The older meeting at this venue, 19 months ago, went to Clyde 1–2, but that's historical and doesn't carry the same weight. At Clyde's ground, they've won two of the three recent meetings, but that's their home record, not what we're looking at here.
The counter-argument is that Clyde are in decent shape overall. Three wins, a draw and a loss in their last five, and they've scored in every single one of those games — 14 goals in five. Their last 10 shows 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, and they've kept it to 1.9 conceded a game. They're not a team that's falling apart; they're just struggling to get results away from home.
Key Points:
- Stranraer's home record: 9W 5D 6L in 20 games, 1.8 scored per game
- Clyde's away record: 3W 6D 11L in 20 games, 2.25 conceded per game
- Stranraer won 3–1 at this venue in March; Clyde's 3 recent wins all came at home
- Clyde have scored in all 5 of their last 5 but their away form is poor
- Stranraer are unbeaten in their last 5, winning the last 2
My pick: Stranraer home win at 2.35. The numbers at this venue tell a clear story, and the market's 42.55% implied probability undersells what Stranraer's home record and recent form actually say. I rate Stranraer's chance of winning at around 55%, which puts this at a comfortable value.
