Strasbourg vs Auxerre Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Ligue 1 clash between Strasbourg and Auxerre. On paper, this looks about as one-sided as a pub fight between a heavyweight and a featherweight.

Strasbourg are sitting pretty in 7th place with 16 points, while Auxerre are propping up the table in 17th with just 7 points. That's a massive nine-point gap between these two, and when you dig into the form, it gets even more telling.

The home side have been decent at their own gaff, winning 60% of their last 5 home games. They've been banging them in too – 2.1 goals per game on average. Remember that 5-0 thumping they gave Angers? Or how about the 3-3 draw with PSG where they went toe-to-toe with the big boys? Sure, they lost 2-1 to Lyon last time out, but that's hardly a disgrace against a side flying high in 4th.

Auxerre, though? They're having a proper nightmare away from home. Zero wins in their last 4 away games, scoring a pathetic 0.75 goals per game on their travels. They've been shut out by Le Havre (0-1), outplayed by Lens (1-2), and completely outclassed by PSG (0-2). Their only win in the last 10 was a lucky 1-0 at home against Toulouse.

The head-to-head tells the same story – Strasbourg have won all 3 home meetings against Auxerre. Last time out, it was a routine 1-0 win for the home side.

When you look at the stats, Strasbourg are averaging 1.8 goals at home while conceding just 0.6. Auxerre away? They're scoring 0.75 and letting in 2.0. It's chalk and cheese, mate.

Both teams have had 3 days' rest, so no advantage there. But with Strasbourg's home form and Auxerre's travel sickness, this looks like a straightforward home win to me.

Key Points:

• Strasbourg 7th (16 pts) vs Auxerre 17th (7 pts) – massive table gap

• Strasbourg: 60% home win rate, 1.8 goals scored per game at home

• Auxerre: 0% away win rate, only 0.75 goals scored per game away

• Head-to-head: Strasbourg have won all 3 home meetings

• Strasbourg beat Angers 5-0 recently; Auxerre lost 0-1 to Le Havre

The Bet:

Sometimes the simplest bets are the best. Strasbourg at home against a side that can't buy a win on the road? It's not exactly rocket science, is it? The odds of 1.70 might not set the world on fire, but they represent decent value for what looks like a comfortable home victory. Auxerre simply don't have the firepower or form to trouble a solid Strasbourg side on their own patch.