Preview
PajimonLook, I'll be straight with you - this one's got the smell of a goal feast in the air, and I'm not talking about the boerewors I had last weekend. Strasbourg are at home on 17 October to face Paris Saint Germain, and if you've been following the numbers, the writing is pretty clear.
Strasbourg have been struggling, boys. They lost their last two games - 1-2 at Nice on 11 October and 1-2 at Paris FC on 19 September - and across their last 10 matches they've only managed 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses. That's 0.8 points per game, and they've conceded 2.4 per game. At home over 20 games they've got 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses, scoring 1.65 per game and conceding 1.55. Not terrible, but not great. And the head-to-head at this ground in the last 12 months? Paris Saint Germain won 2-1 back in February.
Now flip it around. Paris Saint Germain are on a 4-game winning run - 12 goals scored, 3 conceded. They beat Le Mans 3-1 at home on 10 October, won 2-1 at Marseille on 20 September, and picked up a 1-0 away at Stade Brestois 29 on 13 September. Their away record over 20 games is 12 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses, scoring 1.8 per game and conceding just 1.0. In their last 10 matches they've scored 2 per game and conceded 1.2. That's a side in good form, and the numbers back it up.
The head-to-head tells the real story though. In 19 meetings going back 8 years, Paris Saint Germain have won 12, drawn 5, and Strasbourg have won just 2. And here's the kicker - 15 of those 19 meetings went over 2.5 goals. In the last 12 months, both meetings went over 2.5 goals (1-2 and 3-3). The older meetings in the head-to-head also produced goals, but those are historical.
Now, the counter-argument. Strasbourg did beat Lens 2-1 at home on 29 August and drew 1-1 with Monaco on 12 September. They're not a team that sits back and folds. They scored in all 5 of their last 5 matches, and their home record shows 14 of 20 games with both teams scoring. Paris Saint Germain's away record shows 11 of 20 games where at least one team failed to score, so there's a small chance this goes quiet. But honestly? With PSG scoring 2.6 per game in their last 5 and Strasbourg scoring 2.2 per game, I'm not betting against the goals.
Key Points:
- Paris Saint Germain are on a 4-game winning run, scoring 12 and conceding 3
- Strasbourg lost their last 2 and have 6 losses in their last 10
- Both head-to-head meetings in the last 12 months went over 2.5 goals
- Both teams' home and away records show 13 of 20 games over 2.5
- Paris Saint Germain's away record: 12W 3D 5L, 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded per game
My pick: Over 2.5 goals at 1.33.