Sudtirol vs Avellino Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Serie B scrap between Sudtirol and Avellino. Two sides not exactly setting the world alight, but there's a story to tell here.

Sudtirol, bless 'em, have become the draw specialists of Serie B. Six draws in their last ten games! They're like that mate who can never make his mind up in the pub - neither here nor there. Recent form shows they're tough to beat but struggle to actually win games. They've picked up decent draws against Modena (0-0 away) and Carrarese (1-1 at home), but that solitary win came way back in September against Reggiana (3-1). At home, they're not exactly fortress material - only winning 25% of their last four on their own patch.

Avellino, on the other hand, are proper Jekyll and Hyde. They can look brilliant one week (that 4-3 win over Reggiana was pure chaos) and then get absolutely hammered the next (0-3 to Empoli, 0-3 to Cesena, 0-4 to Spezia). The big issue? Their defense is more generous than a drunk uncle at Christmas. They're leaking 2.1 goals per game overall, and away from home it gets even worse - 2.2 goals conceded per road trip!

Here's the thing though - despite being defensively shambolic, Avellino actually score more away from home (1.40 per game) than they do at home. And Sudtirol? Well, 70% of their recent games have seen both teams find the net. They might not score many, but they rarely keep clean sheets either.

The head-to-head is basically non-existent with only two meetings ever, but Sudtirol did win 1-0 at home last time they played. Not that that tells us much really.

Looking at the stats, this screams 'both teams score' to me. Sudtirol's recent games are mostly goal-fests at both ends, and Avellino's away defense is about as solid as a chocolate teapot. Even if Avellino are inconsistent going forward, they should get chances against a Sudtirol side that's kept just one clean sheet in ten games.

The odds of 1.95 for both teams to score look pretty decent value given the patterns we're seeing. Sudtirol might be draw-happy, but with Avellino's defensive generosity, we could well see goals at both ends here.