Preview
Right, so we've got Sudtirol hosting Sampdoria on 24 October in Serie B, and if you want to know where the value is, look at the home-and-away numbers first.
Sudtirol's home record over their last 20 games at this ground reads 6 wins, 10 draws and 4 losses, with 1.4 points per game. They've kept 10 clean sheets in those 20 and conceded just 0.8 a game. Now flip that around and look at Sampdoria's away record over 20 games: 3 wins, 5 draws and 12 losses, 0.7 points per game, and they've conceded 1.55 a game. That's a gulf. Sudtirol at home are a side that grind out results and keep things tight; Sampdoria on the road are a side that lose more than they win and leak goals like a sieve.
And the recent form tells the same story. Sampdoria have lost their last two โ 1โ2 at home to Arezzo and 1โ4 at Avellino โ and in their last five they've won just once, drawing nothing and losing four. They've conceded 12 goals in those five and kept zero clean sheets. Sudtirol, to be fair, aren't flying either. They lost 0โ3 at Juve Stabia six days ago (with a red card in the 59th minute to make it all the more painful), and in their last five they've won once, drawn once and lost three. But at home, that 0โ0 draw with Ascoli two weeks ago shows they can park the bus and get a point when it matters.
The head-to-head is thin on recent meetings. The only game within the last 12 months was at Sampdoria's ground in May, which the hosts won 1โ0. At Sudtirol's ground, there are no recent meetings on record. The older meetings โ going back two years โ show Sudtirol winning both times at home (3โ1 and 2โ1), but those are historical and I wouldn't hang too much on them.
Now the counter-argument, because I'm not a fool. Sudtirol's own recent form is patchy. Three losses in five, failed to score in three of those five, and that 0โ3 defeat at Juve Stabia was ugly. Their xG against in the last four games with data sits at 1.52 per game, which means they're being pushed around defensively. And Sampdoria, despite the poor run, did score in four of their last five, so they're not completely toothless. The 4โ1 win at Arezzo for Sudtirol four weeks ago shows they can open up when it goes their way, but that's a friendly and it doesn't carry the same weight.
Still, when you stack it all up โ Sudtirol's solid home record, Sampdoria's dire away numbers, the visitors losing their last two and leaking goals โ the balance tips firmly to the home side. The market prices Sudtirol's win at 2.47, which implies about 40% chance. My read is closer to 46%, which means there's a bit of value in the home win at that price.
Key Points:
- Sudtirol's home record: 6W 10D 4L in 20 games, 1.4 ppg, 10 clean sheets
- Sampdoria's away record: 3W 5D 12L in 20 games, 0.7 ppg, 1.55 conceded per game
- Sampdoria lost their last two (1โ2, 1โ4) and have won just 1 of their last 5
- Sudtirol's recent form is shaky (1W 1D 3L) but the home record holds up
- Only one recent H2H meeting; no recent games at this venue
My pick: Sudtirol home win at 2.47.
