Sunderland vs Liverpool Prediction

Cor blimey, we've got a proper Premier League clash on our hands here! Sunderland, sitting pretty in 9th, welcome Liverpool, who are just three points ahead in 6th, to what's become a bit of a fortress recently. Let's have a butcher's at the numbers and see where the value might be.

Sunderland: Tough to Beat at Home

The Black Cats have turned their gaff into a tough place to visit. In their last four home games, they're unbeaten – two wins and two draws – and they've only let in one solitary goal in that run. That's proper defending. They held the mighty Manchester City to a 0-0 draw, beat Burnley 3-0 and Crystal Palace 2-1, and drew 1-1 with Leeds. They're organised, they're gritty, and they know how to scrap for a point. Their overall form might look a bit patchy with only two wins in ten, but at home, they're a different animal, averaging 1.5 goals scored and a miserly 0.5 conceded.

Liverpool: Plenty of Punch, But Leaky on the Road

Now then, Liverpool. On their day, they can blow anyone away – just ask Newcastle, who got a 4-1 hiding, or Qarabag who were smashed 6-0. But away from home, it's been a mixed bag. They put three past Marseille in Europe, but also shipped three in a 3-2 loss at Bournemouth. They've drawn 0-0 at Arsenal and 2-2 at Fulham in their recent travels. So while they average a healthy 1.75 goals per game on the road, they also concede 1.25. The firepower is there, but the back door isn't always locked.

Head-to-Head: Liverpool's Party, But Sunderland Gatecrash

History heavily favours the Reds, with five wins and four draws from the last nine meetings. Sunderland have never beaten them in that time. But here's the kicker – four of those nine games ended all square, including the most recent tussle back in December which finished 1-1. So while Liverpool usually have the upper hand, Sunderland know how to cling on and get a result.

Where's the Value?

The bookies have Liverpool as clear favourites at 1.70 to win. But with Sunderland's home resolve, that feels a bit short for my liking. The draw at 4.26 is tempting given the history, but I'm looking at the goal markets.

The goal expectancy lads reckon we'll see about 2.5 goals. The odds for over 2.5 are 1.86, which is basically a coin flip. But my eye is drawn to Both Teams to Score at 1.82. Let's break it down: Sunderland score in most of their home games (three of the last four), and Liverpool score in most of their away games (three of the last four). Both teams have found the net in 50% of Sunderland's last ten and 60% of Liverpool's. The head-to-head says it happens more often than not (five times in nine).

Sunderland's defence is solid, but Liverpool's attack is a constant threat. I fancy the hosts to get at a Liverpool backline that's conceded on the road, and the Reds should have enough to breach that stubborn Sunderland defence at least once.

Key Points:

Sunderland are unbeaten in their last four at home, conceding just once.

Liverpool have won only one of their last four away games in all competitions.

The last meeting between these sides ended 1-1.

Both teams have scored in the majority of Liverpool's recent games and in over half of the historical clashes.

• The odds for Both Teams to Score (1.82) offer a sliver of value against the underlying stats.

The Simple Tip

This has all the makings of a proper, hard-fought Premier League battle. I can see Sunderland frustrating Liverpool for large parts, but the Reds' quality should tell eventually. At the other end, the home side have shown they can hurt teams at the Stadium of Light. I'm backing both nets to ripple. Both Teams to Score - Yes is the play.