Sutton Utd vs Woking Prediction

Alright mate, fancy a midweek punt in the National League? Sutton United are hosting Woking and I've got to tell ya, the prices on this one look a bit wonky if you ask me.

Sutton are having a right old nightmare this season, sitting 21st with just 29 points from 30 games, deep in the relegation mire. They've only managed one win in their last ten - a scrappy 1-0 away at Tamworth - and haven't won a single game at home in their last five attempts. We're talking four draws and a loss, with a measly 0.60 goals per game on their own patch. They couldn't even score against Hartlepool last weekend in a dull 0-0 draw, and they lost 1-0 to Braintree the week before - no disrespect to Braintree, but they're struggling too.

Woking, on the other hand, are sitting pretty in 12th with 38 points and look a different beast entirely. They've picked up 1.50 points per game over their last ten, keeping five clean sheets in the process. They absolutely battered Hartlepool 4-0 at home recently and even away from home they're finding the net - 1.50 goals per game on their travels. Sure, they got done 4-2 by Forest Green a couple of weeks back, but they bounced back with a 2-0 win at Truro and a solid 0-0 against promotion-chasing Boreham Wood.

The head-to-head is tighter than a drum - three wins apiece and two draws from the last eight - but Sutton's home record against Woking is poor with just one win in four. Given the form book, I can't for the life of me see why Sutton are favourites at 2.30. They've won zero percent of their last five home games while Woking have won half of their away days!

Key Points:

• Sutton have won just 1 of their last 10 games (1-0 vs Tamworth) and are winless in their last 5 home matches

• Woking have won 4 of their last 10, including a 4-0 thrashing of Hartlepool and 2-0 away at Truro

• Sutton are averaging just 0.50 goals per game recently while conceding 1.10

• Woking have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10 games (50% rate)

• The last meeting ended 1-1 back in September, but Woking's form has improved since then

Look, Sutton might be due a win eventually, but at 2.88 for the away victory, Woking represent cracking value against a side that simply can't find the back of the net. The maths says Woking have been twice as good as Sutton recently, so I'm backing the away win.