Preview
Mr SimpleRight, let's get into this one. Tenerife host Girona on 12 October in the Segunda División, and the numbers at the venue are the first thing that catches your eye.
Tenerife's home record over their last 20 games is the stuff of legend: 12 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses. They score 1.8 goals a game at home and concede just 0.75, and they've kept 10 clean sheets in those 20 fixtures. That's a side that comes home and does the business. Girona's away record over 20 games, though, is a different beast entirely: 6 wins, 7 draws, 7 losses. They score 1.2 per game on the road and concede 1.2, with just 2 clean sheets in 20. The points-per-game gap — 2.05 for Tenerife at home versus 1.25 for Girona away — is the single most telling number in this fixture, and it's a big one.
Now, the counter-argument, and it's a fair one. Girona's recent form is the better of the two. They've won three of their last five — a 2–0 against Albacete at home, a 2–1 at Cadiz and a 2–0 at Sporting Gijon — and conceded only three goals across those five. Their last 10 shows 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses at 1.6 points per game. Tenerife, by contrast, have won just one of their last five. They lost 0–5 at Castellón, lost 2–3 at Cordoba (with a red card in the 87th minute), and their last five sits at 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses, conceding 10 goals in the process. So Girona are the side in the form, no doubt about it.
The head-to-head, unfortunately, is entirely dated. All five meetings on record go back four or five years — the most recent was a 1–3 Girona win at Tenerife's ground in June 2022. That's ancient history and tells us nothing about how these two sides will meet now. When every meeting is that old, you lean on current form and venue records, and that's exactly what we're doing here.
So here's the tension: Girona are the better side in recent form, but the venue numbers say Tenerife at home are a different animal. The 10 clean sheets at home versus Girona's 2 on the road, the 1.8 goals scored versus 1.2, the 0.75 conceded versus 1.2 — that's a gap that's hard to brush off. The market has Girona as the slight favourite at 37.74%, but I think the home record gives Tenerife a genuine edge here, and I'd rate their chance of winning closer to 38%.
Key Points:
- Tenerife home record: 12W 5D 3L in 20 games, 1.8 scored per game, 0.75 conceded, 10 clean sheets
- Girona away record: 6W 7D 7L in 20 games, 1.2 scored per game, 1.2 conceded, 2 clean sheets
- Girona last five: 3W 1D 1L, 7 scored, 3 conceded
- Tenerife last five: 1W 2D 2L, 6 scored, 10 conceded
- Head-to-head is entirely historical; last meeting was 4 years ago
My pick: Tenerife home win at 2.91. The venue numbers are hard to ignore, and while Girona's recent form is the better of the two, their away record is poor enough to give the hosts a real edge.