Preview
Umery UnderdogThe numbers at Tenerife's ground tell a compelling story. Across 20 home games from 20 December 2025 to 26 September 2026, the Canaries have won 12, drawn 5 and lost 3, averaging 2.05 points per game. They score 1.8 goals per game at home and concede just 0.75, keeping a clean sheet in 10 of those 20 matches. Girona's away record over 20 games, from 23 November 2025 to 19 September 2026, tells a very different tale: 6 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses, with 1.25 points per game, 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per outing, and only 2 clean sheets in 20 trips. The gap in points per game — 2.05 to 1.25 — and in clean sheets — 10 to 2 — is the most telling comparison in this fixture.
The counter-argument is Girona's recent form. In their last five matches, the visitors have won three, drawn one and lost one, scoring 7 and conceding just 3. Their most recent game was a 0–0 draw at home against Mallorca on 4 October, and before that they beat Albacete 2–0 and Cadiz 2–1. Tenerife, by contrast, have won only one of their last five, drawing two and losing two, including a 0–5 defeat at Castellón on 19 September and a 2–3 loss at Córdoba on 5 October. The head-to-head between these two sides is entirely historical — the five most recent meetings all date back to 2021 and 2022, so it offers no current-form guidance.
Key Points:
- Tenerife home record: 12W 5D 3L in 20 games, 2.05 PPG, 10 clean sheets
- Girona away record: 6W 7D 7L in 20 games, 1.25 PPG, 2 clean sheets
- Girona's last five: 3W 1D 1L, 7 scored, 3 conceded
- Tenerife's last five: 1W 2D 2L, 6 scored, 10 conceded
- Head-to-head is 4–5 years old; no meetings within 12 months
The market prices Girona as the slight favourite, but the venue records paint a different picture. Tenerife's home numbers — particularly the 10 clean sheets and 0.75 goals conceded per game — suggest a side that is significantly more comfortable on this ground than Girona is on theirs. I rate Tenerife's chance of winning at around 38%, which sits above the market's 34.36% view. That gap, combined with the price of 2.91, gives this a small but genuine edge for the little guy. My pick is the home win at 2.91.