Toluca vs Guadalajara Chivas Prediction

Alright, gather round! We've got a proper tasty one from Liga MX this Saturday night as fourth-placed Toluca welcome league leaders Guadalajara Chivas. It's the unbeaten hosts against the high-fliers - and I'm not kidding when I say this could be the game of the weekend.

Toluca have been rock solid this campaign, haven't they? Four wins and three draws from their seven games, and crucially, they haven't tasted defeat yet. Their home form is particularly impressive - winning four out of their last five at home, scoring two goals a game while only letting in one per match on average. They just went to Necaxa last week and came back with a 3-0 win, and before that they saw off Club Tijuana 1-0. The only slight worry? They've drawn three of their last five - including a couple of 0-0 stalemates against Tigres and Puebla - so they might be due a goal-fest or they're just grinding out results.

Now, Guadalajara Chivas are sitting pretty at the summit with 18 points from seven games, but they come into this one licking their wounds after a 2-1 defeat to Cruz Azul. That was their first loss in ages, mind you, and their away record is still respectable with three wins from six on the road. They're scoring 1.5 goals per game away from home, but they're also leaking 1.33 - which is significantly more than the 0.25 they're conceding at home. So they can be got at on their travels.

The head-to-head makes interesting reading. These two have met nine times recently and it's been tight as a drum - three wins for Toluca, two for Chivas, and four draws. Toluca have only won one of their three home games against Chivas in this sample, drawing the other two. The last time they met back in September, Toluca ran out 3-0 winners, but before that it was a series of 1-0s, 2-1s and 0-0s.

Key Points:

• Toluca are unbeaten in Liga MX this season (4W-3D) and have won 80% of their last five home games

• Guadalajara Chivas top the table but just lost 2-1 to Cruz Azul and concede 1.33 goals per game away from home

• Head-to-head history shows four draws in the last nine meetings - this is usually a tight affair

• Toluca have kept five clean sheets in their last ten games (50% rate)

• Both teams average exactly 1.4 goals per game over their last ten matches

Summary:

This is a clash between two of Mexico's heavyweights in red-hot form, but Toluca's unbeaten record and formidable home advantage gives them the edge for me. Guadalajara Chivas are quality but that away defence is vulnerable, and after their first defeat of the season last week, they might be feeling a bit sorry for themselves. At evens (2.00), the home win looks decent value in what should be a competitive 90 minutes. I'm backing Toluca to keep their unbeaten run going.