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Torino arrive at this fixture in strong recent shape, having won their last two matches โ a 3โ0 away at Parma on 19 October and a 2โ1 home victory over Udinese on 12 October โ scoring five goals and conceding just one in that span. At home over 20 games, Torino have recorded 9 wins, 2 draws and 9 losses, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Their defensive record in the last 10 matches across all venues is notable: just 10 goals conceded in 10 games, a rate of 1 per game.
Monza, however, are no pushovers on the road. Their away record over 20 games stands at 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses, with 1.5 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game. In their last 10 matches, Monza have scored 19 goals at a rate of 1.9 per game and have failed to score in only 0 of those 10. Their last five matches have all produced over 2.5 goals, and they have scored in every one of those five. The 4โ0 home win over Cagliari on 19 October shows the ceiling of their output.
The head-to-head at this venue is a single recent meeting: on 1 September, Monza won 1โ0 at Torino in the Coppa Italia. The older meetings at Torino's ground โ a 1โ0 Torino win and a 1โ1 draw โ are historical and do not carry the weight of current form. The full head-to-head spans four years, and those older games dilute any reading of it.
The strongest counter-argument to a Torino win is Monza's scoring output. In the last 10 games, Monza have scored 1.9 per game and conceded 1.7 per game, and their xG for stands at 1.82 per game across 7 matches with data. Torino's xG against is 1.27 per game. Monza's record of scoring in 10 of their last 10 means Torino will need to score to win, and the evidence suggests that is likely to happen. The matchup table shows Monza averaging 1.5 points per game away versus Torino's 1.45 at home, and Monza scoring 1.5 per game away versus Torino's 1.3 at home. The gap between the two sides is narrow on the numbers.
Key Points:
- Torino won their last two matches (3โ0 at Parma, 2โ1 vs Udinese), scoring 5 and conceding 1.
- Monza have scored in all of their last 10 matches and produced over 2.5 goals in all of their last 5.
- The only recent meeting at this venue (1 September, Coppa Italia) ended 0โ1 to Monza.
- Torino's home record: 9W 2D 9L in 20 games; Monza's away record: 8W 6D 6L in 20 games.
- Monza's xG for is 1.82 per game; Torino's xG against is 1.27 per game.
This is a fixture where the evidence points to a slight Torino edge at home, but the margin is thin, the recent head-to-head at this ground went the other way, and Monza's scoring record makes a clean Torino win far from certain. I am not comfortable placing a bet here. No Bet.
