Preview
PajimonRight, so we've got Toronto FC hosting Orlando City SC on 14 October, and let me tell you, this one smells like a goal-fest. I'm not even joking. Look at the numbers and your mouth waters like a piece of boerewors on the coals.
Toronto FC at home over the last 20 games have gone over 2.5 goals in 14 of those 20. Orlando City SC on the road over their last 20 away games? 17 out of 20 have been over 2.5. That is not a coincidence, that is a pattern, and patterns are what we love in this game, aye? And the recent form is singing the same song. Toronto's last five matches have seen over 2.5 goals in four of them, and Orlando's last five? All five. Every single one. The 3–2 against Columbus, the 2–4 at Philadelphia, the 2–4 at New England, the 1–2 at Columbus in the Open Cup, and that 3–0 against Toronto themselves four weeks ago. Five out of five, no under 2.5 in sight.
Now, the head-to-head is only two meetings in the last 12 months, so it is a bit thin, but both of them went over 2.5. Orlando won 3–0 at their ground on 12 September, and Toronto bounced back with a 4–2 at their own ground on 18 October last year. Two meetings, nine goals between them. That is the kind of football that keeps you glued to the screen with a cold one in your hand.
The matchup table tells the same story. Toronto at home score 2 per game and concede 1.85 per game. Orlando away score 1.8 per game and concede 3 per game. Both venues produce goals in abundance, and the last 10 games for each side back it up: 8 of Toronto's last 10 went over 2.5, and 9 of Orlando's last 10 did the same.
Now, the counter-argument, because I am not a fool. Toronto's last five has been a bit of a rollercoaster — two wins and three losses, and they have only won their last one. They conceded 10 goals in those five games, which is not pretty. And Orlando, despite the goal-fest, have only won their last one too, with three losses in the last five. Both teams are a bit shaky in terms of results. Also, Toronto's home record is heavy on draws — 9 of their last 20 home games ended level — which could suggest a tighter game than the goal numbers suggest. And that 3–0 Orlando win four weeks ago was a clean sheet, so one team can definitely shut the other out.
But here is the thing: even in the 3–0, Orlando scored three. Even in the 4–2, both teams found the net. The goal count is what matters here, not who lifts the trophy.
Key Points:
- Toronto home: 14/20 over 2.5; Orlando away: 17/20 over 2.5
- Orlando's last 5 matches: 5/5 over 2.5; Toronto's last 5: 4/5 over 2.5
- Both recent H2H meetings (3–0 and 4–2) went over 2.5
- Toronto home scores 2 per game; Orlando away scores 1.8 per game
- Both teams' last 10: 8/10 and 9/10 over 2.5 respectively
My verdict: I am going with over 2.5 goals. The evidence is stacked, the numbers are clear, and I rate this at around 78%, which sits comfortably above the market's 69.93% implied probability. At 1.43, this is the one.