Torres vs Atalanta II Prediction

Right, so we've got Torres at home taking on Atalanta II on 11 October in Serie C Girone B, and if you've got a fancy for goals, this might not be the one. Let me walk you through why.

Torres have been solid at home. Over their last 20 home games, they've picked up 6 wins, 9 draws and 5 losses, averaging 1.35 points per game. More importantly for our purposes, 12 of those 20 home games finished with two or fewer goals. They've scored 1.05 per game at home and conceded 1.15, which adds up to just over two goals a game. Their last five matches have been lossless — two wins and three draws — and three of those five were under 2.5. The 0–0 at home against Vado on 26 September is a nice reminder that this lot can park the bus.

Atalanta II's away record tells a similar story. In 20 away games, they've managed 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses, averaging 1.1 points per game. Thirteen of those 20 away fixtures ended with two or fewer goals. They score 1.15 per game on the road but concede 1.55, which is a lot. Their last five matches have seen them win three and lose two, but two of those five were under 2.5, and their most recent game was a 0–2 defeat at home to Ravenna on 20 September.

Now, the head-to-head is a bit dated — just two meetings, both back in May 2025 in the promotion play-offs. Torres won 2–1 at home and Atalanta II won 7–1 at their own ground. Both games went over 2.5, but that's 17 months ago and I wouldn't put much weight on it. What matters is the current form and the venue records, and those are screaming low-scoring.

The counter-argument? Atalanta II have won three of their last five, and their away scoring record (1.15 per game) is actually a touch higher than Torres' home scoring (1.05 per game). In their latest 10, Atalanta II have seen 5 games go over 2.5. And Torres' last three games have all been draws, which could suggest a team that's comfortable settling for a point rather than going for it. Plus, both teams' venue records show BTTS yes in 11 of 20 games, so there's a decent chance both find the net.

But when you stack up the under 2.5 numbers — 12 out of 20 at Torres' ground, 13 out of 20 on Atalanta II's road trips, 6 out of 10 in Torres' latest 10, 5 out of 10 in Atalanta II's latest 10 — the pattern is hard to ignore. The market prices under 2.5 at 1.85, implying about 54%, and I'd put my own estimate a touch above that, around 58%. The evidence is consistent across both teams' records and recent form.

Key Points:

• Torres have not lost in their last five matches and 12 of their last 20 home games finished under 2.5 goals

• Atalanta II's away record shows 13 of 20 games under 2.5, with 1.55 goals conceded per game

• The head-to-head is historical (two meetings in May 2025) and both went over 2.5, but that's 17 months ago

• Torres' last three games have all been draws, including a 0–0 at home

• Both teams' venue records show BTTS yes in 11 of 20 games, so a goal from each side is possible

My tip: under 2.5 goals.