Tottenham vs Fulham Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this London derby down at the Lane. Tottenham are sitting in 9th with 18 points, while Fulham are lingering in 15th on 14 points. Both sides are having a bit of a mixed time of it lately, and that's where we might find some value.

Tottenham's home form has been a bit dodgy recently, mind you. Only won 25% of their last 4 home games - not exactly fortress-like, is it? They got battered 4-1 by Arsenal in their last outing, and also lost 1-0 to Chelsea and 2-0 to Newcastle. That said, they did put four past Copenhagen and three past Everton, so they can still find the net when they're in the mood. They're averaging 1.75 goals scored at home, which ain't too shabby.

Now Fulham, bless 'em, are absolutely shocking on their travels. Zero wins in their last 5 away games, losing 80% of them! They're shipping goals for fun away from home too - 2.2 per game on average. Recent away trips include a 2-0 loss at Everton and a 2-1 defeat at Newcastle. They do score the odd goal though, netting in half of their last 10 games.

Here's the thing - Tottenham's defense has been about as solid as a chocolate teapot lately. They've conceded in 6 of their last 10 games, including that 4-1 hammering by Arsenal. Fulham, despite their away woes, do manage to score now and then.

The head-to-head record shows Tottenham unbeaten at home against Fulham (2 wins, 2 draws), but both teams have scored in 4 of their 9 meetings overall. Given Tottenham's leaky defense and Fulham's tendency to concede away from home, I reckon we'll see goals at both ends.

The stats back this up - Tottenham are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game, while Fulham are averaging 1.20 scored and 1.30 conceded. When you dig into the home/away splits, it's even more telling: Spurs score 1.75 at home but concede 1.25, while Fulham score just 0.80 away but let in 2.20!

Both teams to score at 1.70 looks like decent value to me. Tottenham should have enough to score at home, and Fulham, despite their away struggles, have shown they can nick a goal. With both defenses looking about as reliable as a weather forecast, I'm expecting both keepers to be picking the ball out of their nets.