Preview
Right, so we've got TPV hosting KPV-j in the Ykkönen on 10 October, and if I'm being honest, the numbers here are doing a lot of the talking for us.
Let's start with what's in front of us. TPV at home over their last 20 games have won 9, drawn 5 and lost 6, scoring 1.9 a game and conceding 1.7. That's a solid home record. Now look at KPV-j on the road: 4 wins, 4 draws and 12 losses in 20 away games, scoring just 1.05 a game and conceding 2.8. That's a team that struggles mightily when they're not at home. In their last three away fixtures, they've gone down 0-2 to VJS, 0-3 to FC jazz and 1-4 to JJK. Three away defeats in a row, and they've only managed one goal in that stretch.
The head-to-head adds a little spice. These two have met twice in the last 12 months. At KPV-j's ground on 11 July, TPV came away with a 3-1 win. At TPV's ground on 11 April, it was a 0-0 draw. So TPV have won or drawn both meetings, and the one competitive edge they've shown has been on the road to KPV-j.
Now, the counter-argument, and I'll be fair about it. TPV's last two games have been losses — 1-3 at home to FC jazz on 26 September and 0-3 away to Inter Turku II on 20 September. They've only scored one goal in those two and conceded six. That's not the most confident run into a fixture. And the last time these two met at TPV's ground, it was a goalless draw. So there's a thread to pull on if you're feeling cautious.
But here's the thing: KPV-j's away record is genuinely poor. Twelve losses in 20 away games is not a coincidence. They've failed to score in 9 of those 20 away games. And TPV, despite the last two setbacks, still sit comfortably in their home numbers. The 9 wins at home in 20 games don't just vanish because of two bad results.
The market has TPV at 1.62, which prices them at about 62%. I'd put TPV's chances a touch higher than that, closer to 66%, given how badly KPV-j travel and how solid TPV's home record is over the longer stretch. The price feels just about right, maybe a shade generous for the hosts.
Key Points:
- TPV's home record: 9W 5D 6L in 20 games, scoring 1.9 per game
- KPV-j's away record: 4W 4D 12L in 20 games, conceding 2.8 per game
- H2H: TPV won 1, drew 1, KPV-j won 0 in the last 12 months
- KPV-j lost their last three away games, scoring just 1 goal in that stretch
- TPV's last two games were losses, but their 20-game home record remains strong
So my tip: TPV home win at 1.62. The numbers don't lie, and KPV-j's away record is a genuine concern for them.
