TPV vs PKKU Prediction

TPV vs PKKU: Ykkönen, 29 August 2026 11:00.

TPV are 9th on 24 points from 21 games, 6 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses. Their last 10 are 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, 19 goals scored and 17 conceded for a +2 goal difference. The cleanest signal is at home: in their last four games they are 75% winners, 25% draws and 0% losses, scoring 2.75 goals and conceding 1.25 per game. That is exactly where the edge looks.

PKKU are 4th on 32 points from 21 games, 8 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses. Their last 10 are 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses, 17 goals and 17 conceded. Away, their last four are 25% wins, 50% draws and 25% losses, 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded. Their home form is better at 33% wins, 50% draws and 17% losses, 1.83 goals scored and 1.83 conceded, but this fixture is away for them.

Goal expectancies support the home side: 2.12 for TPV versus 1.38 for PKKU. That points to a match with enough goals for both teams, but with TPV having the edge. The last meeting was a 2-2 draw at TPV. In the four-match H2H record, TPV have 1 win, PKKU 2 wins and 1 draw, with goals of 3 to 5. TPV's only home meeting against PKKU in the data is a draw.

Over 2.5 goals is the obvious market favorite at 1.36, with a 70% fair probability. But the odds are too short for a clean value bet. Under 2.5 at 3.10 and BTTS No at 3.05 are too long. The real value is in the home win at 2.47.

Key Points:

• TPV home form: 75% wins, 2.75 GS, 1.25 GC

• Goal expectancy: 2.12 for TPV vs 1.38 for PKKU

• TPV last 10: 5W 2D 3L, +2 GD, 19 GS, 17 GC

• PKKU away form: 25% wins, 50% draws, 1.50 GS, 1.50 GC

• H2H: TPV 1, PKKU 2, 1 draw; last meeting 2-2 at TPV

• Fatigue: TPV 7 days rest, PKKU 8 days rest; both played 2 matches in last 14 days

Confidence: 6/10.

The best bet is Home Win.