Tranmere vs Milton Keynes Dons Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one down at Prenton Park. On paper, it's a classic tale of two teams heading in opposite directions. Tranmere are sitting in 16th, just plodding along, while MK Dons are up there in 3rd, proper flying this season.

Now, here's where it gets interesting for us punters. Tranmere's recent form has been... well, let's call it 'entertaining'. They've managed to nick a couple of wins lately - 3-2 against Cheltenham and 2-1 over Blackpool - but their defence is about as solid as a chocolate teapot. Get this: they haven't kept a single clean sheet in their last 10 matches! Not one! That's 90% of their games seeing both teams get on the scoresheet.

MK Dons, on the other hand, are looking proper tasty going forward. They're banging in 2 goals per game on their travels and have been scoring for fun against decent sides. They put four past Bristol Rovers away and three past Colchester in the FA Cup. Their away record shows they win half their games on the road, which ain't bad at this level.

The head-to-head between these two has been pretty tight over the years - three wins each and three draws from eight meetings. But the recent encounters have been close affairs, with both of the last two ending 1-1.

When you look at the numbers, both teams scoring seems like the smart play here. Tranmere simply can't stop conceding, while MK Dons are scoring freely. The goal expectancy suggests we could see around 3.27 goals in this one, which points towards an open game.

MK Dons are clearly the better side - no argument there - but at 2.45 for the away win, I'm not completely convinced that's where the value lies. The both teams to score market at 1.73 looks much more appealing given what we're seeing.

Key Points:

• Tranmere haven't kept a clean sheet in 10 games (conceding 1.70 per game)

• MK Dons scoring 2.00 goals per game away from home

• Both teams have scored in 90% of Tranmere's recent games

• Head-to-head shows both teams scored in 6 of 8 meetings

• MK Dons sitting 3rd vs Tranmere in 16th shows class gap

Given Tranmere's defensive woes and MK Dons' attacking prowess, I'm backing both teams to find the net. The home side might leak goals but they're also scoring at home, and MK Dons should have too much quality not to score against this defence.