Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got Treviso at home against Ospitaletto on 11 October, and if I'm being honest, the numbers here paint a pretty clear picture for the hosts.
Treviso's home record over the last 20 games is the stuff that makes you lean forward in your seat: 11 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses. That's 1.85 points per game, and they've kept 12 clean sheets in those 20. They've scored 1.3 a game and conceded just 0.8. And in their last five matches across all grounds, they've been unbeaten — two wins and three draws, no defeats. The last two home games were both 0-0 draws, which tells you these aren't going to be open, free-scoring affairs.
Now, Ospitaletto are no pushovers. Their last five has two wins, two draws and one loss, and they've racked up 8 goals in that stretch. Over their last 10 games, they've scored 1.7 a game and only failed to score in one of them. That's a team that's got the boot and the confidence.
But here's the rub: their away record over 20 games is 4 wins, 9 draws, 7 losses. That's 1.05 points per game. They've conceded 1.15 a game away and only kept 6 clean sheets. Set that next to Treviso's 1.85 points per game at home and 12 clean sheets, and the difference is hard to ignore.
The head-to-head is a complete blank — no meetings on record between these two sides. So we're going on current form and venue records, and those point firmly to Treviso.
The counter-argument is that Ospitaletto are the better team overall. Their last 10 has 4 wins, 4 draws, 2 losses — that's 1.6 points per game, which edges Treviso's 1.3. They've scored more and failed to score less. If you strip away the venue, Ospitaletto look the stronger side. And their last game was a 1-1 draw at home, which shows they're not rattled.
But football doesn't play on a level pitch, and when a team with 11 home wins in 20 meets a side with 4 away wins in 20, the home side usually has the edge. I rate Treviso's chances of a win here at around 48%, which sits comfortably above the market's 43.48% implied probability on the 2.3 price. There's value here for the punters.
Key Points:
- Treviso are unbeaten in their last 5 matches (2W 3D 0L)
- Treviso's home record: 11W 4D 5L in 20 games, 12 clean sheets
- Ospitaletto's away record: 4W 9D 7L in 20 games, 6 clean sheets
- No head-to-head meetings on record between the two sides
- Ospitaletto's last 10 overall (4W 4D 2L) is stronger than Treviso's (3W 4D 3L)
My pick: Treviso home win at 2.3.