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Right, so we've got Tromso hosting KFUM Oslo on 18 October, and if you've been following the home and away numbers, this one's got a story to tell.
Tromso at home are the sort of side you want on your side of the table. Over their last 20 home games, they've won 11, drawn 6 and lost just 3, racking up 1.95 points per game. They score 1.55 a game at home and concede only 0.75, with 12 clean sheets in those 20. That's a solid record, and their last home game was a 3–2 win over Ham-Kam on 20 September.
Now look at KFUM Oslo on the road. Their last 20 away games read 4 wins, 5 draws and 11 losses. That's 0.85 points per game, scoring 1.25 a game and conceding 2.1. Only 3 clean sheets in 20. That's a tough record to travel with, and it's the most directly relevant comparison for this fixture.
So on the home/away numbers, Tromso look like a comfortable evening for the hosts. The gap between 1.95 points per game at home and 0.85 away for KFUM Oslo is hard to ignore.
But here's the twist, and it's a big one. KFUM Oslo have been in absolute song recently. Four wins from their last five – 2–1 over Valerenga on 12 October, 2–0 at Hønefoss on 30 September, 3–1 at Sarpsborg on 18 September, and 2–1 against Aalesund on 13 September. That's 9 goals scored and just 3 conceded across those four wins. Their last 10 games are 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses. That's a team in form, and it's hard to simply write off.
Tromso, by contrast, have been a bit patchy. Two wins, a draw and two losses from their last five. They drew 1–1 at Fredrikstad on 11 October, beat Ham-Kam 3–2 at home on 20 September, won 2–1 at Alta in the cup on 16 September, but lost 3–5 at Rosenborg on 12 September and 0–2 at Kristiansund on 6 September. That's 11 goals conceded in five games, which is a lot, and it gives KFUM Oslo a route in even at a place like Tromso.
The head-to-head in the last 12 months is thin – just two meetings, both at KFUM Oslo's ground. They drew 0–0 in May and KFUM Oslo won 2–1 in March in a cup tie. There are no recent meetings at Tromso's ground, so we're flying a bit blind on that front. The older meetings at Tromso's ground (2–0 and 0–1) are historical and don't really tell us where these teams are now.
The market has Tromso at 1.54 for the win, which implies about 65%. I'd put Tromso's chance closer to 60%, which means the price isn't quite offering the value I'd want to back with confidence. KFUM Oslo's recent form is too strong to simply dismiss, and Tromso's defensive record in the last five games – conceding 2.2 a game – gives me pause. The home/away numbers say Tromso, but the recent form says it's closer than the price suggests, and I'm not comfortable stretching my estimate to clear the bar.
Key Points:
- Tromso's home record over 20 games: 11W 6D 3L, 1.95 ppg, 12 clean sheets
- KFUM Oslo's away record over 20 games: 4W 5D 11L, 0.85 ppg, 3 clean sheets
- KFUM Oslo have won their last 4 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 3
- Tromso have conceded 11 goals in their last 5 games
- No head-to-head meetings at Tromso's ground in the last 12 months
Verdict: No Bet – the home/away numbers favour Tromso, but KFUM Oslo's recent form makes the 1.54 price a tough one to back with the confidence I'd need.
